Projected AP Top 25 after week 13

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.5 places on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State11-0–AP 1
   Beat Rutgers 42-9 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Indiana11-0–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Texas A&M11-0–AP 3
   Beat Samford 48-0 at home as a 53.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Georgia10-1–AP 4
   Beat Charlotte 35-3 at home as a 42.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Ole Miss10-1–AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Oregon10-1▲1AP 5
   Beat No. 16 USC 42-27 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Texas Tech10-1▼1AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 6
8. 8Oklahoma9-2–AP 8
   Beat No. 23 Missouri 17-6 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Notre Dame9-2–AP 9
   Beat Syracuse 70-7 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Alabama9-2–AP 10
    Beat Eastern Illinois 56-0 at home as a 54.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11BYU10-1–AP 11
    Won 26-14 at Cincinnati as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12Vanderbilt9-2–AP 12
    Beat Kentucky 45-17 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13Utah9-2–AP 14
    Beat Kansas State 51-47 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
14. 14Miami9-2–AP 13
    Won 34-17 at Virginia Tech as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
15. 15Texas8-3▲2AP 16
    Beat Arkansas 52-37 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Michigan9-2▲2AP 15
    Won 45-20 at Maryland as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Tennessee8-3▲3AP 18
    Won 31-11 at Florida as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
18. 18Virginia9-2▲1AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 19
19. 19North Texas10-1▲3AP 21
    Won 56-24 at Rice as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20James Madison10-1▲1AP 20
    Beat Washington State 24-20 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
21. 21USC8-3▼5AP 19
    Lost 42-27 at No. 7 Oregon as a 12.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
22. 22Tulane9-2▲2AP 22
    Won 37-13 at Temple as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Pittsburgh8-3NewAP 24
    Won 42-28 at No. 15 Georgia Tech as a 2.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24South Florida8-3NewAP NR
    Won 48-18 at UAB as a 22.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25SMU8-3NewAP 25
    Beat Louisville 38-6 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Georgia Tech (was No. 15): Lost 42-28 at home to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite.
• Missouri (was No. 23): Lost 17-6 at No. 8 Oklahoma as a 4.5-point underdog.
• Houston (was No. 25): Lost 17-14 at home to TCU as a 1.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.