Projected AP Top 25 after week 5

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 8 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State4-0–AP 1
   Won 24-6 at Washington as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Miami4-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Oregon5-0▲3AP 2
   Won 30-24 at No. 3 Penn State as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 6
4. 4Oklahoma4-0▲3AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 7
5. 5Penn State3-1▼2AP 7
   Lost 30-24 at home to No. 6 Oregon as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
6. 6Texas A&M4-0▲3AP 6
   Beat Auburn 16-10 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
7. 7Ole Miss5-0▲6AP 4
   Beat No. 4 LSU 24-19 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
8. 8Texas3-1▲2AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 10
9. 9Indiana5-0▲2AP 8
   Won 20-15 at Iowa as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10LSU4-1▼6AP 13
    Lost 24-19 at No. 13 Ole Miss as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 4
11. 11Texas Tech4-0▲1AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 12
12. 12Alabama3-1▲5AP 10
    Won 24-21 at No. 5 Georgia as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 17
13. 13Georgia3-1▼8AP 12
    Lost 24-21 at home to No. 17 Alabama as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
14. 14Iowa State5-0–AP 14
    Beat Arizona 39-14 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
15. 15Tennessee4-1–AP 15
    Won 41-34 at Mississippi State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
16. 16Georgia Tech5-0–AP 17
    Won 30-29 at Wake Forest as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
17. 17Vanderbilt5-0▲1AP 16
    Beat Utah State 55-35 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
18. 18Missouri5-0▲2AP 19
    Beat Massachusetts 42-6 at home as a 44.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Florida State3-1▼11AP 18
    Lost 46-38 at Virginia as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
20. 20Michigan3-1▼1AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 19
21. 21Notre Dame2-2▲1AP 21
    Won 56-13 at Arkansas as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
22. 22Illinois4-1▲1AP 22
    Beat No. 21 USC 34-32 at home as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 23
23. 23Virginia4-1NewAP 24
    Beat No. 8 Florida State 46-38 at home as a 6.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24BYU4-0▲1AP 23
    Won 24-21 at Colorado as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25Utah4-1NewAP NR
    Won 48-14 at West Virginia as a 12.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• USC (was No. 21): Lost 34-32 at No. 23 Illinois as a 6.5-point favorite.
• TCU (was No. 24): Lost 27-24 at Arizona State as a 2.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.