Projected AP Top 25 after week 14

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.1 places on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State12-0–AP 1
   Won 27-9 at No. 15 Michigan as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Indiana12-0–AP 2
   Won 56-3 at Purdue as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia11-1▲1AP 3
   Beat No. 23 Georgia Tech 16-9 at a neutral site as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Oregon11-1▲1AP 4
   Won 26-14 at Washington as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Ole Miss11-1▲1AP 6
   Won 38-19 at Mississippi State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Texas Tech11-1▲1AP 5
   Won 49-0 at West Virginia as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Oklahoma10-2▲1AP 8
   Beat LSU 17-13 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Notre Dame10-2▲1AP 9
   Won 49-20 at Stanford as a 33.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Alabama10-2▲1AP 10
   Won 27-20 at Auburn as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Vanderbilt10-2▲2AP 13
    Won 45-24 at No. 18 Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 12
11. 11BYU11-1–AP 11
    Beat UCF 41-21 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12Texas9-3▲4AP 14
    Beat No. 3 Texas A&M 27-17 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
13. 13Texas A&M11-1▼10AP 7
    Lost 27-17 at No. 16 Texas as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
14. 14Miami10-2▼1AP 12
    Won 38-7 at No. 24 Pittsburgh as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
15. 15Utah10-2▼1AP 15
    Won 31-21 at Kansas as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
16. 16Virginia10-2▲1AP 16
    Beat Virginia Tech 27-7 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
17. 17USC9-3▲2AP 17
    Beat UCLA 29-10 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18James Madison11-1▲2AP 19
    Won 59-10 at Coastal Carolina as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19North Texas11-1▲2AP 20
    Beat Temple 52-25 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Michigan9-3▼5AP 18
    Lost 27-9 at home to No. 1 Ohio State as a 9.5-point underdog · Was No. 15
21. 21Tulane10-2▲1AP 21
    Beat Charlotte 27-0 at home as a 31.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
22. 22Tennessee8-4▼4AP NR
    Lost 45-24 at home to No. 12 Vanderbilt as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
23. 23South Florida9-3NewAP NR
    Beat Rice 52-3 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Georgia Tech9-3▼1AP 24
    Lost to No. 4 Georgia 16-9 at a neutral site as a 15.5-point underdog · Was No. 23
25. 25Arizona9-3NewAP 22
    Won 23-7 at Arizona State as a 2.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Pittsburgh (was No. 24): Lost 38-7 at home to No. 13 Miami as a 6.5-point underdog.
• SMU (was No. 25): Lost 38-35 at California as a 13.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.