Projected AP Top 25 after week 4

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.3 places on average, with 6 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State3-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Penn State3-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3LSU4-0–AP 4
   Beat SE Louisiana 56-10 at home as a 48.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Miami4-0–AP 2
   Beat Florida 26-7 at home as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Georgia3-0–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Oregon4-0–AP 6
   Beat Oregon State 41-7 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Florida State3-0–AP 8
   Beat Kent State 66-10 at home as a 45.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Texas3-1–AP 10
   Beat Sam Houston 55-0 at home as a 39.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Oklahoma4-0▲2AP 7
   Beat No. 22 Auburn 24-17 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Texas A&M3-0–AP 9
    Off this week · Was No. 10
11. 11Ole Miss4-0▲2AP 13
    Beat Tulane 45-10 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Iowa State4-0–AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 12
13. 13Tennessee3-1▲2AP 15
    Beat UAB 56-24 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Texas Tech4-0▲3AP 12
    Won 34-10 at No. 16 Utah as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 17
15. 15Indiana4-0▲4AP 11
    Beat No. 9 Illinois 63-10 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
16. 16Alabama2-1▼2AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 14
17. 17Georgia Tech4-0▲1AP 16
    Beat Temple 45-24 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
18. 18Vanderbilt4-0▲2AP 18
    Beat Georgia State 70-21 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Michigan3-1▲2AP 19
    Won 30-27 at Nebraska as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Illinois3-1▼11AP 23
    Lost 63-10 at No. 19 Indiana as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
21. 21Missouri4-0▲2AP 20
    Beat South Carolina 29-20 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Notre Dame1-2▲2AP 22
    Beat Purdue 56-30 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23USC4-0▲2AP 21
    Beat Michigan State 45-31 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24BYU3-0NewAP 25
    Won 34-13 at East Carolina as a 5.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Washington3-0NewAP NR
    Won 59-24 at Washington State as a 20.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Utah (was No. 16): Lost 34-10 at home to No. 17 Texas Tech as a 3.5-point favorite.
• Auburn (was No. 22): Lost 24-17 at No. 11 Oklahoma as a 6.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.