Projected AP Top 25 after week 6

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.4 places on average, with 5 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Texas5-0▲1AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 2
2. 2Ohio State5-0▲1AP 2
   Beat Iowa 35-7 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Georgia4-1▲2AP 5
   Beat Auburn 31-13 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
4. 4Oregon5-0▲2AP 3
   Beat Michigan State 31-10 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
5. 5Penn State5-0▲2AP 4
   Beat UCLA 27-11 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
6. 6Miami6-0▲2AP 6
   Won 39-38 at California as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Ole Miss5-1▲5AP 9
   Won 27-3 at South Carolina as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
8. 8Alabama4-1▼7AP 7
   Lost 40-35 at Vanderbilt as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
9. 9LSU4-1▲4AP 13
   Off this week · Was No. 13
10. 10Notre Dame4-1▲4AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 14
11. 11Clemson4-1▲4AP 10
    Won 29-13 at Florida State as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
12. 12Tennessee4-1▼8AP 8
    Lost 19-14 at Arkansas as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
13. 13Iowa State5-0▲3AP 12
    Beat Baylor 43-21 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14BYU5-0▲3AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 17
15. 15Utah4-1▲3AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 18
16. 16Texas A&M5-1▲9AP 15
    Beat No. 9 Missouri 41-10 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
17. 17Oklahoma4-1▲2AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 19
18. 18Boise State4-1▲3AP 17
    Beat Utah State 62-30 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Kansas State4-1▲1AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 20
20. 20Michigan4-2▼10AP 24
    Lost 27-17 at Washington as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
21. 21USC3-2▼10AP NR
    Lost 24-17 at Minnesota as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
22. 22Indiana6-0▲1AP 20
    Beat Northwestern 41-24 at a neutral site as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23Missouri4-1▼14AP 21
    Lost 41-10 at No. 25 Texas A&M as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
24. 24Vanderbilt3-2NewAP NR
    Beat No. 1 Alabama 40-35 at home as a 22.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25Illinois4-1▼1AP 23
    Off this week · Was No. 24

Dropping out

• Louisville (was No. 22): Lost 34-27 at home to SMU as a 6.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.