Projected AP Top 25 after week 7

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.2 places on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Texas6-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 18 Oklahoma 34-3 at a neutral site as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Oregon6-0▲1AP 2
   Beat No. 2 Ohio State 32-31 at home as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 3
3. 3Penn State6-0▲1AP 3
   Won 33-30 at USC as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Georgia5-1▲1AP 5
   Beat Mississippi State 41-31 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Ohio State5-1▼3AP 4
   Lost 32-31 at No. 3 Oregon as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
6. 6Miami6-0–AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 6
7. 7Alabama5-1–AP 7
   Beat South Carolina 27-25 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Tennessee5-1–AP 11
   Beat Florida 23-17 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Clemson5-1▲1AP 10
   Won 49-14 at Wake Forest as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Notre Dame5-1▲1AP 12
    Beat Stanford 49-7 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11LSU5-1▲2AP 8
    Beat No. 9 Ole Miss 29-26 at home as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 13
12. 12Iowa State6-0–AP 9
    Won 28-16 at West Virginia as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13BYU6-0▲1AP 13
    Beat Arizona 41-19 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Texas A&M5-1▲1AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 15
15. 15Ole Miss5-2▼6AP 18
    Lost 29-26 at No. 13 LSU as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
16. 16Boise State5-1▲1AP 15
    Won 28-7 at Hawai'i as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
17. 17Kansas State5-1▲2AP 17
    Won 31-28 at Colorado as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Missouri5-1▲3AP 19
    Won 45-3 at Massachusetts as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Indiana6-0▲1AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 20
20. 20Pittsburgh6-0▲2AP 20
    Beat California 17-15 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Illinois5-1▲2AP 22
    Beat Purdue 50-49 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Michigan4-2▲2AP 24
    Off this week · Was No. 24
23. 23Oklahoma4-2▼5AP NR
    Lost to No. 1 Texas 34-3 at a neutral site as a 16.5-point underdog · Was No. 18
24. 24SMU5-1▲1AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 25
25. 25Arizona State5-1NewAP NR
    Beat No. 16 Utah 27-19 at home as a 5.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Utah (was No. 16): Lost 27-19 at Arizona State as a 5.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.