Projected AP Top 25 after week 2

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.6 places on average, with 5 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia2-0–AP 1
   Beat Tennessee Tech 48-3 at home as a 54.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State2-0–AP 3
   Beat Western Michigan 56-0 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Texas2-0–AP 2
   Won 31-12 at No. 10 Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Alabama2-0–AP 4
   Beat South Florida 42-16 at home as a 33.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Ole Miss2-0▲1AP 5
   Beat Middle Tennessee 52-3 at home as a 42.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Oregon2-0▲1AP 9
   Beat Boise State 37-34 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Penn State2-0▲1AP 8
   Beat Bowling Green 34-27 at home as a 35.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Missouri2-0▲1AP 6
   Beat Buffalo 38-0 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Utah2-0▲2AP 12
   Beat Baylor 23-12 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Miami2-0▲2AP 10
    Beat Florida A&M 56-9 at home as a 46.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11USC2-0▲2AP 11
    Beat Utah State 48-0 at home as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Tennessee2-0▲2AP 7
    Beat No. 24 NC State 51-10 at a neutral site as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Oklahoma2-0▲2AP 15
    Beat Houston 16-12 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Notre Dame1-1▼9AP 18
    Lost 16-14 at home to Northern Illinois as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
15. 15Oklahoma State2-0▲1AP 13
    Beat Arkansas 39-31 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Michigan1-1▼6AP 17
    Lost 31-12 at home to No. 3 Texas as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
17. 17Kansas State2-0–AP 14
    Won 34-27 at Tulane as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
18. 18LSU1-1–AP 16
    Beat Nicholls 44-21 at home as a 46.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
19. 19Arizona2-0▲1AP 20
    Beat Northern Arizona 22-10 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
20. 20Louisville2-0▲2AP 19
    Beat Jacksonville State 49-14 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Clemson1-1▲4AP 22
    Beat App State 66-20 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
22. 22Northern Illinois2-0NewAP 25
    Won 16-14 at No. 5 Notre Dame as a 28.5-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23Indiana2-0NewAP NR
    Beat Western Illinois 77-3 at home as a 44.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24South Carolina2-0NewAP NR
    Won 31-6 at Kentucky as a 9.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25Navy2-0NewAP NR
    Beat Temple 38-11 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Kansas (was No. 19): Lost 23-17 at Illinois as a 4.5-point favorite.
• Iowa (was No. 21): Lost 20-19 at home to Iowa State as a 2.5-point favorite.
• Georgia Tech (was No. 23): Lost 31-28 at Syracuse as a 2.5-point favorite.
• NC State (was No. 24): Lost to No. 14 Tennessee 51-10 at a neutral site as a 13.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.