Projected AP Top 25 after week 14

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.6 places on average, with 14 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Oregon12-0–AP 1
   Beat Washington 49-21 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Texas11-1▲1AP 2
   Won 17-7 at No. 20 Texas A&M as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Penn State11-1▲1AP 3
   Beat Maryland 44-7 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Notre Dame11-1▲1AP 4
   Won 49-35 at USC as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Georgia10-2▲1AP 5
   Beat Georgia Tech 44-42 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Tennessee10-2▲1AP 6
   Won 36-23 at Vanderbilt as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7SMU11-1▲2AP 8
   Beat California 38-6 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8Indiana11-1▲2AP 9
   Beat Purdue 66-0 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Boise State11-1▲2AP 10
   Beat Oregon State 34-18 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Ohio State10-2▼8AP 7
    Lost 13-10 at home to Michigan as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
11. 11Alabama9-3▲2AP 11
    Beat Auburn 28-14 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Arizona State10-2▲2AP 12
    Won 49-7 at Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13South Carolina9-3▲3AP 13
    Won 17-14 at No. 12 Clemson as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
14. 14Ole Miss9-3▲1AP 15
    Beat Mississippi State 26-14 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Iowa State10-2▲2AP 16
    Beat Kansas State 29-21 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Miami10-2▼8AP 14
    Lost 42-38 at Syracuse as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
17. 17BYU10-2▲2AP 17
    Beat Houston 30-18 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Clemson9-3▼6AP 18
    Lost 17-14 at home to No. 16 South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
19. 19UNLV10-2▲2AP 19
    Beat Nevada 38-14 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Illinois9-3▲2AP 21
    Beat Northwestern 38-28 at a neutral site as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Colorado9-3▲2AP 20
    Beat Oklahoma State 52-0 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
22. 22Missouri9-3▲2AP 22
    Beat Arkansas 28-21 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Texas A&M8-4▼3AP NR
    Lost 17-7 at home to No. 3 Texas as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 20
24. 24Army10-1▲1AP 24
    Beat UTSA 29-24 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25Syracuse9-3NewAP 23
    Beat No. 8 Miami 42-38 at home as a 12.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Tulane (was No. 18): Lost 34-24 at home to Memphis as a 12.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.