Projected AP Top 25 after week 13

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 8 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Ohio State10-1▲1AP 2
   Beat No. 5 Indiana 38-15 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
2. 2Oregon11-0▼1AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
3. 3Texas10-1–AP 3
   Beat Kentucky 31-14 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Penn State10-1–AP 4
   Won 26-25 at Minnesota as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Notre Dame10-1▲1AP 5
   Beat No. 18 Army 49-14 at a neutral site as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Georgia9-2▲2AP 6
   Beat Massachusetts 59-21 at home as a 42.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Tennessee9-2▲3AP 7
   Beat UTEP 56-0 at home as a 41.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
8. 8Miami10-1▲3AP 8
   Beat Wake Forest 42-14 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
9. 9Indiana10-1▼4AP 10
   Lost 38-15 at No. 2 Ohio State as a 10.5-point underdog · Was No. 5
10. 10Boise State10-1▲2AP 11
    Won 17-13 at Wyoming as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11SMU10-1▲2AP 9
    Won 33-7 at Virginia as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Clemson9-2▲5AP 12
    Beat The Citadel 51-14 at home as a 48.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
13. 13South Carolina8-3▲6AP 16
    Beat Wofford 56-12 at home as a 42.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
14. 14Arizona State9-2▲7AP 14
    Beat No. 14 BYU 28-23 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
15. 15Alabama8-3▼8AP 13
    Lost 24-3 at Oklahoma as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
16. 16Ole Miss8-3▼7AP 15
    Lost 24-17 at Florida as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
17. 17Tulane9-2▲3AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 20
18. 18Iowa State9-2▲4AP 17
    Won 31-28 at Utah as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
19. 19UNLV9-2▲4AP 21
    Won 27-16 at San José State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
20. 20BYU9-2▼6AP 19
    Lost 28-23 at No. 21 Arizona State as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
21. 21Illinois8-3▲3AP 22
    Won 38-31 at Rutgers as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 24
22. 22Texas A&M8-3▼7AP 20
    Lost 43-41 at Auburn as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
23. 23Army9-1▼5AP 25
    Lost to No. 6 Notre Dame 49-14 at a neutral site as a 14.5-point underdog · Was No. 18
24. 24Louisiana9-2NewAP NR
    Beat Troy 51-30 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Oklahoma6-5NewAP NR
    Beat No. 7 Alabama 24-3 at home as a 14.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Colorado (was No. 16): Lost to Kansas 37-21 at a neutral site as a 1.5-point favorite.
• Washington State (was No. 25): Lost 41-38 at Oregon State as a 10.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.