Projected AP Top 25 after week 5

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.2 places on average, with 6 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Texas5-0–AP 2
   Beat Mississippi State 35-13 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama4-0▲2AP 1
   Beat No. 2 Georgia 41-34 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
3. 3Ohio State4-0–AP 3
   Won 38-7 at Michigan State as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Tennessee4-0▲1AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 5
5. 5Miami5-0▲2AP 8
   Beat Virginia Tech 38-34 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
6. 6Georgia3-1▼4AP 5
   Lost 41-34 at No. 4 Alabama as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 2
7. 7Oregon4-0▲1AP 6
   Won 34-13 at UCLA as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Penn State4-0▲1AP 7
   Beat No. 19 Illinois 21-7 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Missouri4-0▲2AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 11
10. 10Michigan4-1▲2AP 10
    Beat Minnesota 27-24 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11USC3-1▲2AP 11
    Beat Wisconsin 38-21 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12LSU4-1▲2AP 13
    Beat South Alabama 42-10 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Notre Dame4-1▲3AP 14
    Beat No. 15 Louisville 31-24 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14Clemson3-1▲3AP 15
    Beat Stanford 40-14 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15Ole Miss4-1▼9AP 12
    Lost 20-17 at home to Kentucky as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
16. 16Iowa State4-0▲2AP 16
    Won 20-0 at Houston as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Kansas State4-1▲6AP 20
    Beat No. 20 Oklahoma State 42-20 at home as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
18. 18Oklahoma4-1▲3AP 19
    Won 27-21 at Auburn as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 21
19. 19BYU5-0▲3AP 17
    Won 34-28 at Baylor as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 22
20. 20Utah4-1▼10AP 18
    Lost 23-10 at home to Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
21. 21Louisville3-1▼6AP 22
    Lost 31-24 at No. 16 Notre Dame as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 15
22. 22Texas A&M4-1▲2AP 25
    Beat Arkansas 21-17 at a neutral site as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23Boise State3-1▲2AP 21
    Beat Washington State 45-24 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24Indiana5-0NewAP 23
    Beat Maryland 42-28 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25SMU4-1NewAP NR
    Beat Florida State 42-16 at home as a 5.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Illinois (was No. 19): Lost 21-7 at No. 9 Penn State as a 19.5-point underdog.
• Oklahoma State (was No. 20): Lost 42-20 at No. 23 Kansas State as a 5.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.