Projected AP Top 25 after week 9

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 12 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Oregon8-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 20 Illinois 38-9 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia6-1–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Penn State7-0–AP 3
   Won 28-13 at Wisconsin as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Ohio State6-1–AP 4
   Beat Nebraska 21-17 at home as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Texas7-1–AP 6
   Won 27-24 at No. 25 Vanderbilt as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Miami8-0–AP 5
   Beat Florida State 36-14 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Tennessee6-1–AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 7
8. 8Clemson6-1▲1AP 11
   Off this week · Was No. 9
9. 9Iowa State7-0▲1AP 12
   Off this week · Was No. 10
10. 10BYU8-0▲1AP 9
    Won 37-24 at UCF as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 11
11. 11Texas A&M7-1▲3AP 10
    Beat No. 8 LSU 38-23 at home as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12Notre Dame7-1–AP 8
    Beat No. 24 Navy 51-14 at a neutral site as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13Indiana8-0–AP 13
    Beat Washington 31-17 at home as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
14. 14Alabama6-2▲1AP 14
    Beat No. 21 Missouri 34-0 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Kansas State7-1▲1AP 17
    Beat Kansas 29-27 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16LSU6-2▼8AP 16
    Lost 38-23 at No. 14 Texas A&M as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 8
17. 17Boise State6-1–AP 15
    Won 29-24 at UNLV as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
18. 18Ole Miss6-2–AP 19
    Beat Oklahoma 26-14 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
19. 19Pittsburgh7-0–AP 18
    Beat Syracuse 41-13 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
20. 20SMU7-1▲2AP 20
    Won 28-27 at Duke as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Army7-0▲2AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 23
22. 22Memphis7-1NewAP NR
    Beat Charlotte 33-28 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Colorado6-2NewAP 23
    Beat Cincinnati 34-23 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Illinois6-2▼4AP 24
    Lost 38-9 at No. 1 Oregon as a 22.5-point underdog · Was No. 20
25. 25Tulane6-2NewAP NR
    Won 45-37 at North Texas as a 7.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Missouri (was No. 21): Lost 34-0 at No. 15 Alabama as a 16.5-point underdog.
• Navy (was No. 24): Lost to No. 12 Notre Dame 51-14 at a neutral site as a 14.5-point underdog.
• Vanderbilt (was No. 25): Lost 27-24 at home to No. 5 Texas as a 16.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.