Projected AP Top 25 after week 10

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.2 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Oregon9-0–AP 1
   Won 38-17 at Michigan as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia7-1–AP 2
   Beat Florida 34-20 at a neutral site as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State7-1▲1AP 3
   Won 20-13 at No. 3 Penn State as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Miami9-0▲1AP 4
   Beat Duke 53-31 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Texas7-1▲1AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 6
6. 6Tennessee7-1▲1AP 7
   Beat Kentucky 28-18 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Penn State7-1▼4AP 6
   Lost 20-13 at home to No. 4 Ohio State as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 3
8. 8Notre Dame7-1–AP 10
   Off this week · Was No. 8
9. 9BYU8-0–AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 9
10. 10Indiana9-0▲3AP 8
    Won 47-10 at Michigan State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
11. 11Boise State7-1▲4AP 12
    Beat San Diego State 56-24 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
12. 12Alabama6-2▲2AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 14
13. 13LSU6-2▲3AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 16
14. 14SMU8-1▲6AP 13
    Beat No. 18 Pittsburgh 48-25 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
15. 15Ole Miss7-2▲4AP 16
    Won 63-31 at Arkansas as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
16. 16Army8-0▲5AP 18
    Beat Air Force 20-3 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
17. 17Iowa State7-1▼5AP 17
    Lost 23-22 at home to Texas Tech as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
18. 18Clemson6-2▼7AP 19
    Lost 33-21 at home to Louisville as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
19. 19Washington State7-1▲3AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 22
20. 20South Carolina5-3NewAP NR
    Beat No. 10 Texas A&M 44-20 at home as a 3.5-point underdog · Was unranked
21. 21Texas A&M7-2▼11AP 15
    Lost 44-20 at South Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
22. 22Louisville6-3NewAP 25
    Won 33-21 at No. 11 Clemson as a 11.5-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23Colorado6-2–AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 23
24. 24Missouri6-2▲1AP NR
    Off this week · Was No. 25
25. 25Tulane7-2NewAP NR
    Won 34-3 at Charlotte as a 14.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Kansas State (was No. 17): Lost 24-19 at Houston as a 9.5-point favorite.
• Pittsburgh (was No. 18): Lost 48-25 at No. 20 SMU as a 7.5-point underdog.
• Illinois (was No. 24): Lost 25-17 at home to Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.