Projected AP Top 25 after week 8

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Oregon7-0▲1AP 1
   Won 35-0 at Purdue as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
2. 2Georgia6-1▲3AP 2
   Won 30-15 at No. 1 Texas as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 5
3. 3Penn State6-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4Ohio State5-1–AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Miami7-0▲1AP 6
   Won 52-45 at Louisville as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Texas6-1▼5AP 5
   Lost 30-15 at home to No. 5 Georgia as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
7. 7LSU6-1▲1AP 8
   Won 34-10 at Arkansas as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Tennessee6-1▲3AP 7
   Beat No. 7 Alabama 24-17 at home as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 11
9. 9Iowa State7-0–AP 10
   Beat UCF 38-35 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Clemson6-1–AP 9
    Beat Virginia 48-31 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Notre Dame6-1▲1AP 12
    Beat Georgia Tech 31-13 at a neutral site as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12BYU7-0▲1AP 11
    Beat Oklahoma State 38-35 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Texas A&M6-1▲1AP 14
    Won 34-24 at Mississippi State as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Alabama5-2▼7AP 15
    Lost 24-17 at No. 11 Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
15. 15Indiana7-0▲1AP 13
    Beat Nebraska 56-7 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Boise State5-1▼1AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 15
17. 17Kansas State6-1–AP 16
    Won 45-18 at West Virginia as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
18. 18Ole Miss5-2–AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 18
19. 19Missouri6-1–AP 21
    Beat Auburn 21-17 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
20. 20SMU6-1▲1AP 22
    Won 40-10 at Stanford as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
21. 21Pittsburgh6-0▼1AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 20
22. 22Illinois6-1–AP 20
    Beat No. 24 Michigan 21-7 at home as a 5.5-point underdog · Was No. 22
23. 23Army7-0–AP 23
    Beat East Carolina 45-28 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
24. 24Navy6-0▲1AP 24
    Beat Charlotte 51-17 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25UNLV6-1NewAP NR
    Won 33-25 at Oregon State as a 6.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Michigan (was No. 24): Lost 21-7 at No. 22 Illinois as a 5.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.