Projected AP Top 25 after week 4

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.1 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Texas4-0–AP 1
   Beat UL Monroe 51-3 at home as a 41.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia3-0–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State3-0–AP 3
   Beat Marshall 49-14 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Alabama3-0–AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Ole Miss4-0–AP 6
   Beat Georgia Southern 52-13 at home as a 35.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Tennessee4-0–AP 5
   Won 25-15 at No. 15 Oklahoma as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Missouri4-0–AP 11
   Beat Vanderbilt 30-27 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Miami4-0–AP 7
   Won 50-15 at South Florida as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Oregon3-0–AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 9
10. 10Penn State3-0–AP 9
    Beat Kent State 56-0 at home as a 49-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Utah4-0▲1AP 10
    Won 22-19 at No. 14 Oklahoma State as a 0.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Michigan3-1▲6AP 12
    Beat No. 11 USC 27-24 at home as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 18
13. 13LSU3-1▲3AP 14
    Beat UCLA 34-17 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14Notre Dame3-1▲3AP 16
    Beat Miami (OH) 28-3 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15Louisville3-0▲4AP 15
    Beat Georgia Tech 31-19 at home as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
16. 16Iowa State3-0▲4AP 18
    Beat Arkansas State 52-7 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
17. 17USC2-1▼6AP 13
    Lost 27-24 at No. 18 Michigan as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
18. 18Clemson2-1▲3AP 17
    Beat NC State 59-35 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Oklahoma State3-1▼5AP 20
    Lost 22-19 at home to No. 12 Utah as a 0.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
20. 20Oklahoma3-1▼5AP 21
    Lost 25-15 at home to No. 6 Tennessee as a 5.5-point underdog · Was No. 15
21. 21BYU4-0NewAP 22
    Beat No. 13 Kansas State 38-9 at home as a 7.5-point underdog · Was unranked
22. 22Illinois4-0▲2AP 19
    Won 31-24 at No. 22 Nebraska as a 9.5-point underdog · Was No. 24
23. 23Indiana4-0NewAP NR
    Beat Charlotte 52-14 at home as a 28.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Texas A&M3-1▲1AP 24
    Beat Bowling Green 26-20 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25SMU3-1NewAP NR
    Beat TCU 66-42 at home as a 1.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Kansas State (was No. 13): Lost 38-9 at BYU as a 7.5-point favorite.
• Nebraska (was No. 22): Lost 31-24 at home to No. 24 Illinois as a 9.5-point favorite.
• Northern Illinois (was No. 23): Lost 23-20 at home to Buffalo as a 12.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.