Projected AP Top 25 after week 3

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.8 places on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia3-0–AP 2
   Won 13-12 at Kentucky as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Texas3-0–AP 1
   Beat UTSA 56-7 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State2-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4Alabama3-0–AP 4
   Won 42-10 at Wisconsin as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Ole Miss3-0–AP 5
   Won 40-6 at Wake Forest as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Missouri3-0–AP 7
   Beat No. 24 Boston College 27-21 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Tennessee3-0–AP 6
   Beat Kent State 71-0 at home as a 49.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Penn State2-0–AP 10
   Off this week · Was No. 8
9. 9Oregon3-0–AP 9
   Won 49-14 at Oregon State as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Miami3-0–AP 8
    Beat Ball State 62-0 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11USC2-0–AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 11
12. 12Utah3-0–AP 12
    Won 38-21 at Utah State as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13Oklahoma State3-0–AP 14
    Won 45-10 at Tulsa as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
14. 14Kansas State3-0–AP 13
    Beat No. 20 Arizona 31-7 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
15. 15Oklahoma3-0–AP 15
    Beat Tulane 34-19 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
16. 16LSU2-1–AP 16
    Won 36-33 at South Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
17. 17Michigan2-1–AP 18
    Beat Arkansas State 28-18 at home as a 22-point favorite · Was No. 17
18. 18Notre Dame2-1–AP 17
    Won 66-7 at Purdue as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
19. 19Louisville2-0–AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 19
20. 20Nebraska3-0▲3AP 22
    Beat Northern Iowa 34-3 at home as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Iowa State2-0–AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 21
22. 22Indiana3-0NewAP NR
    Won 42-13 at UCLA as a 3.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Clemson1-1▼1AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 22
24. 24BYU3-0NewAP NR
    Won 34-14 at Wyoming as a 9.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Arizona State3-0NewAP NR
    Won 31-28 at Texas State as a 2.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Arizona (was No. 20): Lost 31-7 at No. 14 Kansas State as a 9.5-point underdog.
• Boston College (was No. 24): Lost 27-21 at No. 6 Missouri as a 14.5-point underdog.
• Northern Illinois (was No. 25): Off this week.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.