Projected AP Top 25 after week 1

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.9 places on average, with 6 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia1-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 14 Clemson 34-3 at a neutral site as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State1-0–AP 2
   Beat Akron 52-6 at home as a 48.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Oregon1-0–AP 7
   Beat Idaho 24-14 at home · Was No. 3
4. 4Texas1-0–AP 3
   Beat Colorado State 52-0 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Alabama1-0–AP 4
   Beat Western Kentucky 63-0 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Ole Miss1-0–AP 6
   Beat Furman 76-0 at home as a 45.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Notre Dame1-0–AP 5
   Won 23-13 at No. 20 Texas A&M as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 7
8. 8Penn State1-0–AP 8
   Won 34-12 at West Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Michigan1-0–AP 10
   Beat Fresno State 30-10 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Missouri1-0▲1AP 9
    Beat Murray State 51-0 at home as a 50.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Utah1-0▲1AP 11
    Beat Southern Utah 49-0 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Tennessee1-0▲3AP 14
    Beat Chattanooga 69-3 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
13. 13Oklahoma1-0▲3AP 15
    Beat Temple 51-3 at home as a 43.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14Oklahoma State1-0▲3AP 16
    Beat South Dakota State 44-20 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15Kansas State1-0▲3AP 17
    Beat UT Martin 41-6 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
16. 16Miami1-0▲3AP 12
    Won 41-17 at Florida as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17USC1-0▲6AP 13
    Beat No. 13 LSU 27-20 at a neutral site as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 23
18. 18Arizona1-0▲3AP 20
    Beat New Mexico 61-39 at home as a 29-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Kansas1-0▲3AP 19
    Beat Lindenwood 48-3 at a neutral site as a 48.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20Clemson0-1▼6AP 25
    Lost to No. 1 Georgia 34-3 at a neutral site as a 10.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
21. 21Georgia Tech2-0NewAP 23
    Beat No. 10 Florida State 24-21 at a neutral site as a 10.5-point underdog · Was unranked
22. 22NC State1-0▲2AP 24
    Beat Western Carolina 38-21 at home as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
23. 23LSU0-1▼10AP 18
    Lost to No. 23 USC 27-20 at a neutral site as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
24. 24SMU2-0NewAP NR
    Won 29-24 at Nevada as a 27.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Iowa1-0–AP 21
    Beat Illinois State 40-0 at home · Was No. 25

Dropping out

• Florida State (was No. 10): Lost to Georgia Tech 24-21 at a neutral site as a 10.5-point favorite.
• Texas A&M (was No. 20): Lost 23-13 at home to No. 7 Notre Dame as a 2.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.