Projected AP Top 25 after week 11

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.5 places on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Oregon10-0–AP 1
   Beat Maryland 39-18 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State8-1▲1AP 2
   Beat Purdue 45-0 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Texas8-1▲2AP 3
   Beat Florida 49-17 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
4. 4Penn State8-1▲2AP 4
   Beat Washington 35-6 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
5. 5Tennessee8-1▲2AP 6
   Beat Mississippi State 33-14 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
6. 6Indiana10-0▲2AP 5
   Beat Michigan 20-15 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Alabama7-2▲4AP 9
   Won 42-13 at No. 14 LSU as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
8. 8BYU9-0▲1AP 7
   Won 22-21 at Utah as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Notre Dame8-1▲1AP 8
   Beat Florida State 52-3 at home as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10Ole Miss8-2▲6AP 10
    Beat No. 2 Georgia 28-10 at home as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
11. 11Georgia7-2▼9AP 11
    Lost 28-10 at No. 16 Ole Miss as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
12. 12Boise State8-1–AP 13
    Beat Nevada 28-21 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
13. 13SMU8-1–AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 13
14. 14Miami9-1▼10AP 12
    Lost 28-23 at Georgia Tech as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
15. 15Texas A&M7-2–AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 15
16. 16Army9-0▲2AP 16
    Won 14-3 at North Texas as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Clemson7-2▲2AP 17
    Won 24-14 at Virginia Tech as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Washington State8-1▲2AP 19
    Beat Utah State 49-28 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Colorado7-2▲2AP 18
    Won 41-27 at Texas Tech as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Kansas State7-2▲2AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 22
21. 21LSU6-3▼7AP 21
    Lost 42-13 at home to No. 11 Alabama as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
22. 22Louisville6-3▲3AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 25
23. 23Georgia Tech6-4NewAP NR
    Beat No. 4 Miami 28-23 at home as a 9.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Louisiana8-1NewAP NR
    Beat Arkansas State 55-19 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Tulane8-2NewAP 25
    Beat Temple 52-6 at home as a 25.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Iowa State (was No. 17): Lost to Kansas 45-36 at a neutral site as a 2.5-point favorite.
• Pittsburgh (was No. 23): Lost 24-19 at home to Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite.
• Vanderbilt (was No. 24): Lost 28-7 at home to South Carolina as a 5.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.