Projected AP Top 25 after week 12

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Oregon11-0–AP 1
   Won 16-13 at Wisconsin as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State9-1–AP 2
   Beat Northwestern 31-7 at a neutral site as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Texas9-1–AP 3
   Won 20-10 at Arkansas as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Penn State9-1–AP 4
   Won 49-10 at Purdue as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Indiana10-0–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Notre Dame9-1▲2AP 6
   Beat Virginia 35-14 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Georgia8-2▲4AP 8
   Beat No. 6 Tennessee 31-17 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
8. 8Alabama8-2▲1AP 7
   Beat Mercer 52-7 at home as a 42.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Ole Miss8-2▲1AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 10
10. 10Miami9-1▲2AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 12
11. 11Boise State9-1▲2AP 12
    Won 42-21 at San José State as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12SMU9-1▲2AP 13
    Beat Boston College 38-28 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Tennessee8-2▼7AP 10
    Lost 31-17 at No. 11 Georgia as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 6
14. 14Texas A&M8-2▲1AP 15
    Beat New Mexico State 38-3 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Army9-0▲1AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 16
16. 16Clemson8-2▲1AP 17
    Won 24-20 at Pittsburgh as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
17. 17Colorado8-2▲1AP 16
    Beat Utah 49-24 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
18. 18BYU9-1▼11AP 14
    Lost 17-13 at home to Kansas as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
19. 19South Carolina7-3▲4AP 19
    Beat No. 24 Missouri 34-30 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
20. 20Tulane9-2▲5AP 20
    Won 35-0 at Navy as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
21. 21Arizona State8-2NewAP 21
    Won 24-14 at No. 20 Kansas State as a 7.5-point underdog · Was unranked
22. 22UNLV8-2NewAP 23
    Beat San Diego State 41-20 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Memphis9-2NewAP NR
    Beat UAB 53-18 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Iowa State8-2NewAP 22
    Beat Cincinnati 34-17 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Washington State8-2▼6AP 25
    Lost 38-35 at New Mexico as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 19

Dropping out

• Kansas State (was No. 20): Lost 24-14 at home to Arizona State as a 7.5-point favorite.
• LSU (was No. 21): Lost 27-16 at Florida as a 2.5-point favorite.
• Louisville (was No. 22): Lost 38-35 at Stanford as a 20.5-point favorite.
• Missouri (was No. 24): Lost 34-30 at No. 23 South Carolina as a 10.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.