Projected AP Top 25 after week 4

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 21 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 3.5 places on average, with 4 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson2-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama1-0–AP 2
   Won 38-19 at Missouri as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia1-0▲1AP 4
   Won 37-10 at Arkansas as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Florida1-0▲1AP 3
   Won 51-35 at Ole Miss as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Notre Dame2-0▲2AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 7
6. 6Auburn1-0▲2AP 7
   Beat No. 23 Kentucky 29-13 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Texas2-0▲2AP 9
   Won 63-56 at Texas Tech as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8Texas A&M1-0▲2AP 13
   Beat Vanderbilt 17-12 at home as a 31.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Miami3-0▲3AP 8
   Beat Florida State 52-10 at home as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10North Carolina1-0▲1AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 11
11. 11UCF2-0▲2AP 11
    Won 51-28 at East Carolina as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Cincinnati2-0▲2AP 15
    Beat No. 22 Army 24-10 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Oklahoma1-1▼10AP 18
    Lost 38-35 at home to Kansas State as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
14. 14Oklahoma State2-0▲1AP 17
    Beat West Virginia 27-13 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Tennessee1-0▲1AP 21
    Won 31-27 at South Carolina as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16BYU2-0▲2AP 22
    Beat Troy 48-7 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Memphis1-0–AP 25
    Off this week · Was No. 17
18. 18LSU0-1▼12AP 20
    Lost 44-34 at home to Mississippi State as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
19. 19Louisiana3-0–AP NR
    Beat Georgia Southern 20-18 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
20. 20Virginia Tech1-0–AP NR
    Beat NC State 45-24 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 20
21. 21Pittsburgh3-0–AP 24
    Beat No. 24 Louisville 23-20 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
22. 22Mississippi State1-0NewAP 16
    Won 44-34 at No. 6 LSU as a 14.5-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23Kansas State1-1NewAP NR
    Won 38-35 at No. 3 Oklahoma as a 27.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Ohio State0-0NewAP 6
    Off this week · Was unranked
25. 25Marshall2-0–AP NR
    Off this week · Was No. 25

Dropping out

• Army (was No. 22): Lost 24-10 at No. 14 Cincinnati as a 12.5-point underdog.
• Kentucky (was No. 23): Lost 29-13 at No. 8 Auburn as a 6.5-point underdog.
• Louisville (was No. 24): Lost 23-20 at No. 21 Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.