Projected AP Top 25 after week 6

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 21 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.1 places on average, with 8 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson4-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 7 Miami 42-17 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama3-0–AP 2
   Won 63-48 at Ole Miss as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia3-0–AP 3
   Beat No. 14 Tennessee 44-21 at home as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Notre Dame3-0▲1AP 4
   Beat Florida State 42-26 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Ohio State0-0▲1AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 6
6. 6North Carolina3-0▲2AP 5
   Beat No. 19 Virginia Tech 56-45 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Penn State0-0▲2AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 9
8. 8Oklahoma State3-0▲2AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 10
9. 9Cincinnati3-0▲2AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 11
10. 10Oregon0-0▲2AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 12
11. 11Auburn2-1▲2AP 14
    Beat Arkansas 30-28 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Florida2-1▼8AP 10
    Lost 41-38 at No. 21 Texas A&M as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 4
13. 13Miami3-1▼6AP 13
    Lost 42-17 at No. 1 Clemson as a 14.5-point underdog · Was No. 7
14. 14BYU4-0▲1AP 15
    Beat UTSA 27-20 at home as a 34-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Texas A&M2-1▲6AP 11
    Beat No. 4 Florida 41-38 at home as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 21
16. 16Wisconsin0-0–AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 16
17. 17SMU4-0▲1AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 18
18. 18Michigan0-0▲2AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 20
19. 19Tennessee2-1▼5AP 18
    Lost 44-21 at No. 3 Georgia as a 12-point underdog · Was No. 14
20. 20Iowa State3-1▲4AP 20
    Beat Texas Tech 31-15 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Coastal Carolina3-0NewAP NR
    Off this week · Was unranked
22. 22Marshall3-0NewAP NR
    Won 38-14 at Western Kentucky as a 6.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Liberty4-0NewAP NR
    Beat UL Monroe 40-7 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Louisiana3-0▼1AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 23
25. 25Buffalo0-0NewAP NR
    Off this week · Was unranked

Dropping out

• LSU (was No. 17): Lost 45-41 at home to Missouri as a 14-point underdog.
• Virginia Tech (was No. 19): Lost 56-45 at No. 8 North Carolina as a 3.5-point underdog.
• Texas (was No. 22): Lost to Oklahoma 53-45 at a neutral site as a 3-point underdog.
• Minnesota (was No. 25): Off this week.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.