Projected AP Top 25 after week 15

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1 place on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama10-0–AP 1
   Won 52-3 at Arkansas as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Notre Dame10-0–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State5-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4Clemson9-1–AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Texas A&M7-1–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Cincinnati8-0▲1AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 7
7. 7Indiana6-1▲1AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 8
8. 8Iowa State8-2▲2AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 10
9. 9Coastal Carolina11-0▲2AP 9
   Won 42-38 at Troy as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Georgia7-2▲2AP 10
    Won 49-14 at Missouri as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Oklahoma7-2▲2AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 13
12. 12BYU10-1▲2AP 14
    Beat San Diego State 28-14 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Northwestern6-1▲2AP 15
    Beat Illinois 28-10 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14North Carolina8-3▲6AP 16
    Won 62-26 at No. 9 Miami as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 20
15. 15USC5-0▲1AP 13
    Won 43-38 at UCLA as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Florida8-2▼10AP 11
    Lost 37-34 at home to LSU as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 6
17. 17Louisiana9-1–AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 17
18. 18Iowa6-2▲1AP 18
    Beat No. 25 Wisconsin 28-7 at home as a 2-point underdog · Was No. 19
19. 19Tulsa6-1▼1AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 18
20. 20Miami8-2▼11AP 19
    Lost 62-26 at home to No. 20 North Carolina as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 9
21. 21Buffalo5-0▲3AP 23
    Beat Akron 56-7 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 24
22. 22Liberty9-1–AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 22
23. 23San José State6-0NewAP 25
    Beat Nevada 30-20 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Texas6-3▼1AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 23
25. 25Boise State5-1NewAP NR
    Won 17-9 at Wyoming as a 9.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Colorado (was No. 21): Lost 38-21 at home to Utah as a 2.5-point underdog.
• Wisconsin (was No. 25): Lost 28-7 at No. 19 Iowa as a 2-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.