Projected AP Top 25 after week 16

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll comes out Sunday afternoon; we’ll show it next to ours.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama11-0–
   Beat No. 11 Florida 52-46 at a neutral site · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson10-1▲2
   Beat No. 2 Notre Dame 34-10 at a neutral site · Was No. 4
3. 3Ohio State6-0–
   Beat No. 15 Northwestern 22-10 at a neutral site · Was No. 3
4. 4Texas A&M8-1▲1
   Won 34-13 at Tennessee as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Cincinnati9-0▲1
   Beat No. 20 Tulsa 27-24 at a neutral site · Was No. 6
6. 6Indiana6-1▲1
   Off this week · Was No. 7
7. 7Coastal Carolina11-0▲2
   Off this week · Was No. 9
8. 8Oklahoma8-2▲4
   Beat No. 8 Iowa State 27-21 at a neutral site · Was No. 12
9. 9Notre Dame10-1▼7
   Lost to No. 4 Clemson 34-10 at a neutral site · Was No. 2
10. 10Georgia7-2–
    Off this week · Was No. 10
11. 11BYU10-1▲3
    Off this week · Was No. 14
12. 12Iowa State8-3▼4
    Lost to No. 12 Oklahoma 27-21 at a neutral site · Was No. 8
13. 13Florida8-3▼2
    Lost to No. 1 Alabama 52-46 at a neutral site · Was No. 11
14. 14North Carolina8-3▲2
    Off this week · Was No. 16
15. 15Iowa6-2▲3
    Off this week · Was No. 18
16. 16Miami8-2▲3
    Off this week · Was No. 19
17. 17Northwestern6-2▼2
    Lost to No. 3 Ohio State 22-10 at a neutral site · Was No. 15
18. 18Texas6-3▲3
    Off this week · Was No. 21
19. 19Liberty9-1▲3
    Off this week · Was No. 22
20. 20USC5-1▼7
    Lost 31-24 at home to Oregon as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 13
21. 21Louisiana9-1▼4
    Off this week · Was No. 17
22. 22San José State7-0▲3
    Beat Boise State 34-20 at a neutral site · Was No. 25
23. 23NC State8-3▲1
    Off this week · Was No. 24
24. 24Tulsa6-2▼4
    Lost to No. 6 Cincinnati 27-24 at a neutral site · Was No. 20
25. 25Ball State6-1New
    Beat No. 23 Buffalo 38-28 at a neutral site · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Buffalo (was No. 23): Lost to Ball State 38-28 at a neutral site.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.