Projected AP Top 25 after week 14

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.8 places on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama9-0–AP 1
   Won 55-17 at LSU as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Notre Dame10-0–AP 2
   Beat Syracuse 45-21 at home as a 34-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State5-0–AP 3
   Won 52-12 at Michigan State as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Clemson9-1–AP 4
   Won 45-10 at Virginia Tech as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Texas A&M7-1–AP 5
   Won 31-20 at Auburn as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Florida8-1–AP 6
   Won 31-19 at Tennessee as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Cincinnati8-0–AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 7
8. 8Miami8-1▲1AP 9
   Won 48-0 at Duke as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Indiana6-1▲1AP 8
   Won 14-6 at No. 18 Wisconsin as a 13.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
10. 10Coastal Carolina10-0▲4AP 11
    Beat No. 8 BYU 22-17 at home as a 10.5-point underdog · Was No. 14
11. 11Iowa State8-2▲1AP 10
    Beat West Virginia 42-6 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Georgia6-2▼1AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 11
13. 13Oklahoma7-2–AP 13
    Beat Baylor 27-14 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
14. 14BYU9-1▼6AP 14
    Lost 22-17 at No. 14 Coastal Carolina as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
15. 15USC4-0▲2AP 16
    Beat Washington State 38-13 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Northwestern5-1–AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 16
17. 17Louisiana9-1▲3AP 17
    Won 24-21 at App State as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 20
18. 18Tulsa6-1▲4AP 18
    Won 19-6 at Navy as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 22
19. 19Iowa5-2▲5AP 19
    Won 35-21 at Illinois as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
20. 20San José State5-0NewAP NR
    Beat Hawai'i 35-24 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was unranked
21. 21Buffalo4-0NewAP 24
    Off this week · Was unranked
22. 22Wisconsin2-2▼4AP 25
    Lost 14-6 at home to No. 10 Indiana as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
23. 23Ball State4-1NewAP NR
    Won 45-20 at Central Michigan as a 2.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Liberty9-1▲1AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 25
25. 25Colorado4-0NewAP 21
    Won 24-13 at Arizona as a 9.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Marshall (was No. 15): Lost 20-0 at home to Rice as a 24.5-point favorite.
• Oklahoma State (was No. 19): Lost 29-22 at TCU as a 2.5-point favorite.
• Oregon (was No. 21): Lost 21-17 at California as a 9-point favorite.
• Washington (was No. 23): Lost 31-26 at home to Stanford as a 12-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.