Projected AP Top 25 after week 3

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson2-0–AP 1
   Beat The Citadel 49-0 at home as a 50.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama0-0–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Oklahoma1-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4Georgia0-0–AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Florida0-0–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6LSU0-0–AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 6
7. 7Notre Dame2-0–AP 7
   Beat South Florida 52-0 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Auburn0-0–AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 8
9. 9Texas1-0–AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 9
10. 10Texas A&M0-0–AP 10
    Off this week · Was No. 10
11. 11Oklahoma State1-0–AP 15
    Beat Tulsa 16-7 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12Cincinnati1-0▲1AP 14
    Beat Austin Peay 55-20 at home as a 39.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13North Carolina1-0▼1AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 12
14. 14UCF1-0–AP 13
    Won 49-21 at Georgia Tech as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
15. 15Miami2-0▲2AP 12
    Won 47-34 at No. 18 Louisville as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Tennessee0-0▼1AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 15
17. 17Memphis1-0▼1AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 16
18. 18Louisiana2-0▲1AP 19
    Won 34-31 at Georgia State as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 19
19. 19Virginia Tech0-0▲1AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 20
20. 20BYU1-0▲1AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 21
21. 21Army2-0▲1AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 22
22. 22Coastal Carolina2-0NewAP NR
    Beat Campbell 43-21 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Kentucky0-0–AP 23
    Off this week · Was No. 23
24. 24Pittsburgh2-0▲1AP 21
    Beat Syracuse 21-10 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25Ohio State0-0NewAP NR
    Off this week · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Louisville (was No. 18): Lost 47-34 at home to No. 17 Miami as a 2.5-point underdog.
• App State (was No. 24): Lost 17-7 at Marshall as a 6-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.