Projected AP Top 25 after week 10

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 12 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama6-0▲1AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 2
2. 2Notre Dame7-0▲2AP 2
   Beat No. 1 Clemson 47-40 at home as a 5-point underdog · Was No. 4
3. 3Ohio State3-0–AP 3
   Beat Rutgers 49-27 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Cincinnati6-0▲2AP 7
   Beat Houston 38-10 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
5. 5Florida4-1▲3AP 6
   Beat No. 5 Georgia 44-28 at a neutral site as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 8
6. 6Clemson7-1▼5AP 4
   Lost 47-40 at No. 4 Notre Dame as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 1
7. 7Texas A&M5-1–AP 5
   Won 48-3 at South Carolina as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8BYU8-0▲1AP 8
   Won 51-17 at No. 21 Boise State as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Wisconsin1-0▲1AP 13
   Off this week · Was No. 10
10. 10Miami6-1▲1AP 9
    Won 44-41 at NC State as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Oregon1-0▲1AP 11
    Beat Stanford 35-14 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Indiana3-0▲1AP 10
    Beat No. 23 Michigan 38-21 at home as a 4-point underdog · Was No. 13
13. 13Georgia4-2▼8AP 12
    Lost to No. 8 Florida 44-28 at a neutral site as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 5
14. 14Oklahoma State5-1–AP 14
    Won 20-18 at Kansas State as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 14
15. 15Coastal Carolina7-0–AP 15
    Beat South Alabama 23-6 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 15
16. 16Marshall6-0–AP 16
    Beat Massachusetts 51-10 at home as a 44.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
17. 17Iowa State5-2–AP 17
    Beat Baylor 38-31 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 17
18. 18SMU7-1–AP 19
    Won 47-23 at Temple as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
19. 19Oklahoma5-2–AP 18
    Beat Kansas 62-9 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
20. 20USC1-0–AP 20
    Beat Arizona State 28-27 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
21. 21Texas5-2▲1AP 21
    Beat West Virginia 17-13 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
22. 22Buffalo1-0NewAP NR
    Won 49-30 at Northern Illinois as a 14.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23San José State3-0NewAP NR
    Won 28-17 at San Diego State as a 10.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Auburn4-2–AP 24
    Off this week · Was No. 24
25. 25Liberty7-0–AP 22
    Won 38-35 at Virginia Tech as a 17-point underdog · Was No. 25

Dropping out

• Boise State (was No. 21): Lost 51-17 at home to No. 9 BYU as a 4.5-point underdog.
• Michigan (was No. 23): Lost 38-21 at No. 13 Indiana as a 4-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.