Projected AP Top 25 after week 12

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 12 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama7-0–AP 1
   Beat Kentucky 63-3 at home as a 31.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Notre Dame8-0–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State4-0–AP 3
   Beat No. 9 Indiana 42-35 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Clemson7-1–AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Texas A&M5-1–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Florida6-1–AP 6
   Won 38-17 at Vanderbilt as a 31.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Cincinnati8-0–AP 7
   Won 36-33 at UCF as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8BYU9-0–AP 8
   Beat North Alabama 66-14 at home as a 50-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Oregon3-0▲2AP 9
   Beat UCLA 38-35 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Miami7-1▲2AP 10
    Off this week · Was No. 12
11. 11Georgia5-2▲2AP 13
    Beat Mississippi State 31-24 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Indiana4-1▼3AP 12
    Lost 42-35 at No. 3 Ohio State as a 21-point underdog · Was No. 9
13. 13Oklahoma6-2▲5AP 14
    Beat No. 14 Oklahoma State 41-13 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
14. 14Northwestern5-0▲5AP 11
    Beat No. 10 Wisconsin 17-7 at home as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 19
15. 15Marshall7-0–AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 15
16. 16Coastal Carolina8-0–AP 16
    Beat App State 34-23 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 16
17. 17Iowa State6-2–AP 15
    Beat Kansas State 45-0 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
18. 18USC3-0▲2AP 19
    Won 33-17 at Utah as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 20
19. 19Wisconsin2-1▼9AP 18
    Lost 17-7 at No. 19 Northwestern as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
20. 20Auburn5-2▲3AP 22
    Beat Tennessee 30-17 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Texas5-2▲1AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 22
22. 22Buffalo3-0NewAP NR
    Won 42-17 at Bowling Green as a 31.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Tulsa5-1▲2AP 24
    Beat Tulane 30-24 at home as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24Louisiana7-1–AP 23
    Off this week · Was No. 24
25. 25Oklahoma State5-2▼11AP 21
    Lost 41-13 at No. 18 Oklahoma as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 14

Dropping out

• Liberty (was No. 21): Lost 15-14 at NC State as a 4-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.