Projected AP Top 25 after week 13

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.5 places on average, with 19 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama8-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 22 Auburn 42-13 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Notre Dame9-0–AP 2
   Won 31-17 at No. 25 North Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State4-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4Clemson8-1–AP 4
   Beat Pittsburgh 52-17 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Texas A&M6-1–AP 5
   Beat LSU 20-7 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Florida7-1–AP 6
   Beat Kentucky 34-10 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Cincinnati8-0–AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 7
8. 8BYU9-0–AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 8
9. 9Miami7-1▲1AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 10
10. 10Indiana5-1▲2AP 10
    Beat Maryland 27-11 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Georgia6-2▲2AP 11
    Won 45-16 at South Carolina as a 22-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Iowa State7-2▲3AP 12
    Won 23-20 at No. 20 Texas as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
13. 13Oklahoma6-2▲1AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 14
14. 14Coastal Carolina9-0▲2AP 14
    Won 49-14 at Texas State as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Marshall7-0▲2AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 17
16. 16Wisconsin2-1▲2AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 18
17. 17USC3-0▲2AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 19
18. 18Oregon3-1▼9AP 21
    Lost 41-38 at Oregon State as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 9
19. 19Oklahoma State6-2▲2AP 19
    Beat Texas Tech 50-44 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20Louisiana8-1▲3AP 20
    Won 70-20 at UL Monroe as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Northwestern5-1▼10AP 16
    Lost 29-20 at Michigan State as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
22. 22Buffalo4-0NewAP NR
    Beat Kent State 70-41 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Tulsa5-1▲1AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 24
24. 24San José State4-0NewAP NR
    Off this week · Was unranked
25. 25Liberty9-1NewAP 25
    Beat Massachusetts 45-0 at home as a 35.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Texas (was No. 20): Lost 23-20 at home to No. 15 Iowa State as a 1.5-point underdog.
• Auburn (was No. 22): Lost 42-13 at No. 1 Alabama as a 24.5-point underdog.
• North Carolina (was No. 25): Lost 31-17 at home to No. 2 Notre Dame as a 4.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.