Projected AP Top 25 after week 8

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.3 places on average, with 4 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson6-0–AP 1
   Beat Syracuse 47-21 at home as a 47.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama5-0–AP 2
   Won 48-17 at Tennessee as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Notre Dame5-0–AP 4
   Won 45-3 at Pittsburgh as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Georgia3-1–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Ohio State1-0–AP 3
   Beat Nebraska 52-17 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oklahoma State4-0–AP 6
   Beat No. 17 Iowa State 24-21 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Texas A&M3-1–AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 7
8. 8Cincinnati4-0▲1AP 7
   Won 42-13 at No. 16 SMU as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 9
9. 9Florida2-1▲1AP 10
   Off this week · Was No. 10
10. 10Miami5-1▲1AP 12
    Beat Virginia 19-14 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11BYU6-0▲1AP 11
    Beat Texas State 52-14 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Wisconsin1-0▲2AP 9
    Beat Illinois 45-7 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Oregon0-0–AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 13
14. 14North Carolina4-1▲1AP 15
    Beat No. 23 NC State 48-21 at home as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Michigan1-0▲3AP 13
    Won 49-24 at No. 21 Minnesota as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 18
16. 16Penn State0-1▼8AP 18
    Lost 36-35 at Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
17. 17Kansas State4-1▲3AP 16
    Beat Kansas 55-14 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 20
18. 18Marshall5-0▲4AP 19
    Beat Florida Atlantic 20-9 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 22
19. 19Iowa State3-2▼2AP 23
    Lost 24-21 at No. 6 Oklahoma State as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 17
20. 20Indiana1-0NewAP 17
    Beat No. 8 Penn State 36-35 at home as a 6.5-point underdog · Was unranked
21. 21Coastal Carolina5-0▲4AP 20
    Beat Georgia Southern 28-14 at home as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 25
22. 22USC0-0▲2AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 24
23. 23SMU5-1▼7AP 22
    Lost 42-13 at home to No. 9 Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 16
24. 24Boise State1-0NewAP 25
    Beat Utah State 42-13 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25San José State1-0NewAP NR
    Beat Air Force 17-6 at home as a 7.5-point underdog · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Virginia Tech (was No. 19): Lost 23-16 at Wake Forest as a 10.5-point favorite.
• Minnesota (was No. 21): Lost 49-24 at home to No. 18 Michigan as a 3-point underdog.
• NC State (was No. 23): Lost 48-21 at No. 15 North Carolina as a 15-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.