Projected AP Top 25 after week 11

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.6 places on average, with 15 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama6-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Notre Dame8-0–AP 2
   Won 45-31 at Boston College as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State3-0–AP 3
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4Clemson7-1–AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 4
5. 5Texas A&M5-1–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Florida5-1–AP 6
   Beat Arkansas 63-35 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Cincinnati7-0–AP 7
   Beat East Carolina 55-17 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8BYU8-0–AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 8
9. 9Miami7-1–AP 12
   Won 25-24 at Virginia Tech as a 2-point underdog · Was No. 9
10. 10Indiana4-0–AP 9
    Won 24-0 at Michigan State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Oregon2-0–AP 11
    Won 43-29 at Washington State as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
12. 12Wisconsin2-0▲1AP 10
    Won 49-11 at Michigan as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Georgia4-2▼1AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 12
14. 14Oklahoma State5-1–AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 14
15. 15Marshall7-0▲1AP 15
    Beat Middle Tennessee 42-14 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Coastal Carolina7-0▼1AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 15
17. 17Iowa State5-2–AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 17
18. 18Oklahoma5-2–AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 18
19. 19USC2-0▲1AP 20
    Won 34-30 at Arizona as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 20
20. 20Liberty8-0▲2AP 21
    Beat Western Carolina 58-14 at home as a 39-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Texas5-2–AP 22
    Off this week · Was No. 21
22. 22Northwestern4-0▲1AP 19
    Won 27-20 at Purdue as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23Louisiana7-1▲2AP 24
    Beat South Alabama 38-10 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24Buffalo2-0NewAP NR
    Beat Miami (OH) 42-10 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Auburn4-2▼1AP 23
    Off this week · Was No. 24

Dropping out

• SMU (was No. 19): Lost 28-24 at Tulsa as a 2-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.