Projected AP Top 25 after week 7

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.2 places on average, with 8 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson5-0–AP 1
   Won 73-7 at Georgia Tech as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama4-0–AP 2
   Beat No. 3 Georgia 41-24 at home as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Notre Dame4-0▲1AP 3
   Beat Louisville 12-7 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Ohio State0-0▲2AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 6
5. 5Oklahoma State3-0▲2AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 7
6. 6Cincinnati3-0▲2AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 8
7. 7Georgia3-1▼4AP 4
   Lost 41-24 at No. 2 Alabama as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 3
8. 8Penn State0-0▲1AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 9
9. 9Florida2-1▲1AP 10
   Off this week · Was No. 10
10. 10Texas A&M3-1▲1AP 7
    Won 28-14 at Mississippi State as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Oregon0-0▲1AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 12
12. 12Miami4-1▲1AP 11
    Beat Pittsburgh 31-19 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13BYU5-0▲2AP 12
    Won 43-26 at Houston as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14North Carolina3-1▼9AP 15
    Lost 31-28 at Florida State as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
15. 15Wisconsin0-0▲1AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 16
16. 16SMU5-0▲1AP 16
    Won 37-34 at Tulane as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
17. 17Michigan0-0▲2AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 19
18. 18Iowa State3-1▲2AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 20
19. 19Virginia Tech3-1▲4AP 19
    Beat Boston College 40-14 at home as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 23
20. 20Kansas State3-1▲2AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 22
21. 21Coastal Carolina4-0NewAP 25
    Won 30-27 at No. 21 Louisiana as a 9.5-point underdog · Was unranked
22. 22Minnesota0-0▲2AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 24
23. 23Auburn2-2▼9AP NR
    Lost 30-22 at South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
24. 24USC0-0▲1AP 24
    Off this week · Was No. 25
25. 25Marshall4-0NewAP 22
    Won 35-17 at Louisiana Tech as a 12-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Tennessee (was No. 18): Lost 34-7 at home to Kentucky as a 6.5-point favorite.
• Louisiana (was No. 21): Lost 30-27 at home to Coastal Carolina as a 9.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.