Projected AP Top 25 after week 9

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.6 places on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson7-0–AP 1
   Beat Boston College 34-28 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama6-0–AP 2
   Beat Mississippi State 41-0 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State2-0–AP 3
   Won 38-25 at No. 18 Penn State as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Notre Dame6-0–AP 4
   Won 31-13 at Georgia Tech as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Georgia4-1–AP 5
   Won 14-3 at Kentucky as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Cincinnati5-0▲1AP 6
   Beat Memphis 49-10 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Texas A&M4-1▲1AP 7
   Beat Arkansas 42-31 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Wisconsin1-0▲1AP 10
   Off this week · Was No. 9
9. 9Florida3-1▲1AP 8
   Beat Missouri 41-17 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10BYU7-0▲1AP 9
    Beat Western Kentucky 41-10 at home as a 31-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Miami5-1▲1AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 12
12. 12Oregon0-0▲2AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 14
13. 13Indiana2-0▲4AP 13
    Won 37-21 at Rutgers as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
14. 14Oklahoma State4-1▼8AP 14
    Lost 41-34 at home to Texas as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
15. 15Coastal Carolina6-0▲5AP 15
    Won 51-0 at Georgia State as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
16. 16Marshall5-0▲3AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 19
17. 17SMU6-1▲5AP 18
    Beat Navy 51-37 at home as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 22
18. 18Iowa State4-2▲5AP 17
    Won 52-22 at Kansas as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
19. 19USC0-0▲2AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 21
20. 20Oklahoma4-2▲4AP 19
    Won 62-28 at Texas Tech as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Penn State0-2▼3AP NR
    Lost 38-25 at home to No. 3 Ohio State as a 10-point underdog · Was No. 18
22. 22Michigan1-1▼9AP 23
    Lost 27-24 at home to Michigan State as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
23. 23Boise State2-0▲2AP 21
    Won 49-30 at Air Force as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24Texas4-2NewAP 22
    Won 41-34 at No. 6 Oklahoma State as a 3.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25North Carolina4-2▼10AP NR
    Lost 44-41 at Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 15

Dropping out

• Kansas State (was No. 16): Lost 37-10 at West Virginia as a 5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.