Projected AP Top 25 after week 5

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 21 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.6 places on average, with 11 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Clemson3-0–AP 1
   Beat Virginia 41-23 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama2-0–AP 2
   Beat No. 13 Texas A&M 52-24 at home as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia2-0▲1AP 3
   Beat No. 7 Auburn 27-6 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4Florida2-0▼1AP 4
   Beat South Carolina 38-24 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
5. 5Notre Dame2-0–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Ohio State0-0–AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 6
7. 7Miami3-0▲1AP 7
   Off this week · Was No. 8
8. 8Penn State0-0▲2AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 10
9. 9North Carolina2-0▲3AP 8
   Won 26-22 at Boston College as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10Auburn1-1▼3AP 13
    Lost 27-6 at No. 4 Georgia as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 7
11. 11Cincinnati3-0▲4AP 11
    Beat South Florida 28-7 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
12. 12Oregon0-0▲2AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 14
13. 13Oklahoma State3-0▲4AP 10
    Won 47-7 at Kansas as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
14. 14LSU1-1▲6AP 17
    Won 41-7 at Vanderbilt as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 20
15. 15Texas2-1▼6AP 22
    Lost 33-31 at home to TCU as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
16. 16Wisconsin0-0▲3AP 16
    Off this week · Was No. 19
17. 17Tennessee2-0▲4AP 14
    Beat Missouri 35-12 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18Texas A&M1-1▼5AP 21
    Lost 52-24 at No. 2 Alabama as a 18-point underdog · Was No. 13
19. 19BYU3-0▲3AP 15
    Beat Louisiana Tech 45-14 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20Tulsa1-1NewAP NR
    Won 34-26 at No. 11 UCF as a 20.5-point underdog · Was unranked
21. 21Coastal Carolina3-0NewAP NR
    Beat Arkansas State 52-23 at home as a 3.5-point underdog · Was unranked
22. 22UCF2-1▼11AP NR
    Lost 34-26 at home to Tulsa as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
23. 23TCU1-1NewAP NR
    Won 33-31 at No. 9 Texas as a 10.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Iowa State2-1NewAP 24
    Beat No. 18 Oklahoma 37-30 at home as a 7.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25Michigan0-0▼2AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 23

Dropping out

• Mississippi State (was No. 16): Lost 21-14 at home to Arkansas as a 16.5-point favorite.
• Oklahoma (was No. 18): Lost 37-30 at Iowa State as a 7.5-point favorite.
• Pittsburgh (was No. 24): Lost 30-29 at home to NC State as a 14-point favorite.
• Memphis (was No. 25): Lost 30-27 at SMU as a 2-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.