Projected AP Top 25 after week 9

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.5 places on average, with 12 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia8-0–AP 1
   Beat Florida 42-20 at a neutral site as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State8-0–AP 3
   Won 44-31 at No. 13 Penn State as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Tennessee8-0–AP 2
   Beat No. 19 Kentucky 44-6 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Michigan8-0–AP 4
   Beat Michigan State 29-7 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Clemson8-0–AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 5
6. 6Alabama7-1–AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 6
7. 7TCU8-0–AP 7
   Won 41-31 at West Virginia as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Oregon7-1–AP 8
   Won 42-24 at California as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9USC7-1▲1AP 9
   Won 45-37 at Arizona as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 10
10. 10UCLA7-1▲2AP 10
    Beat Stanford 38-13 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Utah6-2▲3AP 12
    Won 21-17 at Washington State as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12Ole Miss8-1▲3AP 11
    Won 31-28 at Texas A&M as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 15
13. 13Illinois7-1▲4AP 14
    Won 26-9 at Nebraska as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
14. 14Kansas State6-2▲8AP 13
    Beat No. 9 Oklahoma State 48-0 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
15. 15Penn State6-2▼2AP 16
    Lost 44-31 at home to No. 2 Ohio State as a 15.5-point underdog · Was No. 13
16. 16LSU6-2▲2AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 18
17. 17North Carolina7-1▲4AP 17
    Beat Pittsburgh 42-24 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18Oklahoma State6-2▼9AP 18
    Lost 48-0 at No. 22 Kansas State as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
19. 19Tulane7-1▲4AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 23
20. 20NC State6-2▲4AP 21
    Beat Virginia Tech 22-21 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Louisville5-3NewAP NR
    Beat No. 11 Wake Forest 48-21 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was unranked
22. 22Wake Forest6-2▼11AP 20
    Lost 48-21 at Louisville as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 11
23. 23Notre Dame5-3NewAP NR
    Won 41-24 at No. 16 Syracuse as a 1-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Kentucky5-3▼5AP NR
    Lost 44-6 at No. 3 Tennessee as a 10.5-point underdog · Was No. 19
25. 25UCF6-2NewAP 25
    Beat No. 20 Cincinnati 25-21 at home as a 1.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Syracuse (was No. 16): Lost 41-24 at home to Notre Dame as a 1-point underdog.
• Cincinnati (was No. 20): Lost 25-21 at UCF as a 1.5-point underdog.
• South Carolina (was No. 25): Lost 23-10 at home to Missouri as a 3.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.