Projected AP Top 25 after week 3

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.8 places on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia3-0–AP 1
   Won 48-7 at South Carolina as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama3-0–AP 2
   Beat UL Monroe 63-7 at home as a 49.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State3-0–AP 3
   Beat Toledo 77-21 at home as a 31-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Michigan3-0–AP 4
   Beat UConn 59-0 at home as a 47.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Clemson3-0–AP 5
   Beat Louisiana Tech 48-20 at home as a 33.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oklahoma3-0–AP 6
   Won 49-14 at Nebraska as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7USC3-0–AP 7
   Beat Fresno State 45-17 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Oklahoma State3-0–AP 9
   Beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 63-7 at home as a 54.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Kentucky3-0–AP 8
   Beat Youngstown State 31-0 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Arkansas3-0–AP 10
    Beat Missouri State 38-27 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 10
11. 11Utah2-1▲3AP 13
    Beat San Diego State 35-7 at home as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12Tennessee3-0▲3AP 11
    Beat Akron 63-6 at home as a 47.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
13. 13NC State3-0▲3AP 12
    Beat Texas Tech 27-14 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14Baylor2-1▲3AP 17
    Beat Texas State 42-7 at home as a 30-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15Florida2-1▲3AP 20
    Beat South Florida 31-28 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
16. 16Ole Miss3-0▲4AP 16
    Won 42-0 at Georgia Tech as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 20
17. 17Wake Forest3-0▲2AP 21
    Beat Liberty 37-36 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Texas2-1▲3AP 22
    Beat UTSA 41-20 at home as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Oregon2-1▲6AP 15
    Beat No. 12 BYU 41-20 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
20. 20Texas A&M2-1▲4AP 23
    Beat No. 13 Miami 17-9 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Penn State3-0▲1AP 14
    Won 41-12 at Auburn as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
22. 22Pittsburgh2-1▲1AP 24
    Won 34-13 at Western Michigan as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23Michigan State2-1▼12AP NR
    Lost 39-28 at Washington as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 11
24. 24Washington3-0NewAP 18
    Beat No. 11 Michigan State 39-28 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Miami2-1▼12AP 25
    Lost 17-9 at No. 24 Texas A&M as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 13

Dropping out

• BYU (was No. 12): Lost 41-20 at No. 25 Oregon as a 3.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.