Projected AP Top 25 after week 11

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 21 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.3 places on average, with 15 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia10-0–AP 1
   Won 45-19 at Mississippi State as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State10-0–AP 2
   Beat Indiana 56-14 at home as a 40.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Michigan10-0–AP 3
   Beat Nebraska 34-3 at home as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4TCU10-0–AP 4
   Won 17-10 at No. 18 Texas as a 7.5-point underdog · Was No. 4
5. 5Tennessee9-1–AP 5
   Beat Missouri 66-24 at home as a 19.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6LSU8-2▲1AP 6
   Won 13-10 at Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7USC9-1▲1AP 7
   Beat Colorado 55-17 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Alabama8-2▲2AP 8
   Won 30-24 at No. 11 Ole Miss as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Clemson9-1▲3AP 9
   Beat Louisville 31-16 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10Utah8-2▲3AP 10
    Beat Stanford 42-7 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 13
11. 11Penn State8-2▲3AP 11
    Beat Maryland 30-0 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12North Carolina9-1▲3AP 13
    Won 36-34 at Wake Forest as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 15
13. 13Oregon8-2▼7AP 12
    Lost 37-34 at home to No. 24 Washington as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 6
14. 14Ole Miss8-2▼3AP 14
    Lost 30-24 at home to No. 10 Alabama as a 11-point underdog · Was No. 11
15. 15Washington8-2▲9AP 15
    Won 37-34 at No. 6 Oregon as a 12-point underdog · Was No. 24
16. 16UCF8-2▲6AP 17
    Won 38-31 at No. 16 Tulane as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 22
17. 17UCLA8-2▼8AP 16
    Lost 34-28 at home to Arizona as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 9
18. 18Notre Dame7-3▲2AP 18
    Beat Navy 35-32 at a neutral site as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 20
19. 19Kansas State7-3▲4AP 19
    Won 31-3 at Baylor as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 23
20. 20Texas6-4▼2AP NR
    Lost 17-10 at home to No. 4 TCU as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
21. 21Florida State7-3▲4AP 20
    Won 38-3 at Syracuse as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 25
22. 22Tulane8-2▼6AP 21
    Lost 38-31 at home to No. 22 UCF as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 16
23. 23NC State7-3▼6AP NR
    Lost 21-20 at home to Boston College as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 17
24. 24UTSA8-2NewAP NR
    Beat Louisiana Tech 51-7 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Liberty8-2▼6AP NR
    Lost 36-33 at UConn as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 19

Dropping out

• Illinois (was No. 21): Lost 31-24 at home to Purdue as a 6-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.