Projected AP Top 25 after week 6

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.5 places on average, with 2 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama6-0–AP 3
   Beat Texas A&M 24-20 at home as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia6-0–AP 1
   Beat Auburn 42-10 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State6-0–AP 2
   Won 49-20 at Michigan State as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Michigan6-0–AP 5
   Won 31-10 at Indiana as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Clemson6-0–AP 4
   Won 31-3 at Boston College as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6USC6-0–AP 7
   Beat Washington State 30-14 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Oklahoma State5-0–AP 8
   Beat Texas Tech 41-31 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
8. 8Tennessee5-0–AP 6
   Won 40-13 at No. 25 LSU as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
9. 9Ole Miss6-0–AP 9
   Won 52-28 at Vanderbilt as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Penn State5-0–AP 10
    Off this week · Was No. 10
11. 11Oregon5-1▲1AP 12
    Won 49-22 at Arizona as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12NC State5-1▲2AP 15
    Beat Florida State 19-17 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Wake Forest5-1▲2AP 14
    Beat Army 45-10 at home as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14UCLA6-0▲4AP 11
    Beat No. 11 Utah 42-32 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 18
15. 15TCU5-0▲2AP 13
    Won 38-31 at No. 19 Kansas as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Kansas State5-1▲4AP 17
    Won 10-9 at Iowa State as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 20
17. 17Utah4-2▼6AP 20
    Lost 42-32 at No. 18 UCLA as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 11
18. 18Mississippi State5-1▲5AP 16
    Beat Arkansas 40-17 at home as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
19. 19Syracuse5-0▲3AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 22
20. 20Cincinnati5-1▲4AP 21
    Beat South Florida 28-24 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Kentucky4-2▼8AP 23
    Lost 24-14 at home to South Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
22. 22James Madison5-0NewAP 25
    Won 42-20 at Arkansas State as a 11.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Texas4-2NewAP 22
    Beat Oklahoma 49-0 at a neutral site as a 7.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24South Carolina4-2NewAP NR
    Won 24-14 at No. 13 Kentucky as a 4.5-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25Tulane5-1NewAP NR
    Beat East Carolina 24-9 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• BYU (was No. 16): Lost to Notre Dame 28-20 at a neutral site as a 3.5-point underdog.
• Kansas (was No. 19): Lost 38-31 at home to No. 17 TCU as a 7-point underdog.
• Washington (was No. 21): Lost 45-38 at Arizona State as a 13.5-point favorite.
• LSU (was No. 25): Lost 40-13 at home to No. 8 Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.