Projected AP Top 25 after week 13

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.5 places on average, with 6 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia12-0–AP 1
   Beat Georgia Tech 37-14 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan12-0▲1AP 2
   Won 45-23 at No. 2 Ohio State as a 9-point underdog · Was No. 3
3. 3TCU12-0▲1AP 3
   Beat Iowa State 62-14 at home as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4USC11-1▲1AP 4
   Beat No. 13 Notre Dame 38-27 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Alabama10-2▲3AP 6
   Beat Auburn 49-27 at home as a 22-point favorite · Was No. 8
6. 6Tennessee10-2▲3AP 7
   Won 56-0 at Vanderbilt as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 9
7. 7Ohio State11-1▼5AP 5
   Lost 45-23 at home to No. 3 Michigan as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 2
8. 8Penn State10-2▲3AP 8
   Beat Michigan State 35-16 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 11
9. 9Washington10-2▲3AP 9
   Won 51-33 at Washington State as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10Utah9-3▲4AP 12
    Won 63-21 at Colorado as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
11. 11Kansas State9-3▲4AP 13
    Beat Kansas 47-27 at home as a 12-point favorite · Was No. 15
12. 12Florida State9-3▲4AP 14
    Beat Florida 45-38 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 16
13. 13UCLA9-3▲4AP 17
    Won 35-28 at California as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
14. 14Clemson10-2▼7AP 10
    Lost 31-30 at home to South Carolina as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 7
15. 15LSU9-3▼9AP 11
    Lost 38-23 at Texas A&M as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 6
16. 16Tulane10-2▲3AP 18
    Won 27-24 at No. 21 Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17Oregon State9-3▲5AP 16
    Beat No. 10 Oregon 38-34 at home as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 22
18. 18Notre Dame8-4▼5AP 19
    Lost 38-27 at No. 5 USC as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 13
19. 19Oregon9-3▼9AP 15
    Lost 38-34 at No. 22 Oregon State as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 10
20. 20Texas8-4▲4AP 21
    Beat Baylor 38-27 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21UCF9-3▲4AP 22
    Won 46-39 at South Florida as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 25
22. 22South Carolina8-4NewAP 20
    Won 31-30 at No. 7 Clemson as a 14-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23Troy10-2NewAP NR
    Won 48-19 at Arkansas State as a 13.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24James Madison8-3NewAP NR
    Beat No. 23 Coastal Carolina 47-7 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25South Alabama10-2NewAP NR
    Beat Old Dominion 27-20 at home as a 16.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• North Carolina (was No. 18): Lost 30-27 at home to NC State as a 6.5-point favorite.
• Ole Miss (was No. 20): Lost 24-22 at home to Mississippi State as a 2.5-point favorite.
• Cincinnati (was No. 21): Lost 27-24 at home to No. 19 Tulane as a 1-point underdog.
• Coastal Carolina (was No. 23): Lost 47-7 at James Madison as a 15.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.