Projected AP Top 25 after week 1

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.9 places on average, with 4 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama1-0–AP 1
   Beat Utah State 55-0 at home as a 42-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State1-0–AP 3
   Beat No. 5 Notre Dame 21-10 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Georgia1-0–AP 2
   Beat No. 11 Oregon 49-3 at a neutral site as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Clemson1-0–AP 5
   Beat Georgia Tech 41-10 at a neutral site as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Texas A&M1-0▲1AP 6
   Beat Sam Houston 31-0 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Michigan1-0▲2AP 4
   Beat Colorado State 51-7 at home as a 31-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Oklahoma1-0▲2AP 7
   Beat UTEP 45-13 at home as a 31-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8Baylor1-0▲2AP 9
   Beat UAlbany 69-10 at home as a 42.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Notre Dame0-1▼4AP 8
   Lost 21-10 at No. 2 Ohio State as a 17-point underdog · Was No. 5
10. 10Oklahoma State1-0▲2AP 11
    Beat Central Michigan 58-44 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11NC State1-0▲2AP 18
    Won 21-20 at East Carolina as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12USC1-0▲2AP 10
    Beat Rice 66-14 at home as a 32.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Michigan State1-0▲2AP 14
    Beat Western Michigan 35-13 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Miami1-0▲2AP 15
    Beat Bethune-Cookman 70-13 at home as a 49.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Pittsburgh1-0▲2AP 17
    Beat West Virginia 38-31 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Wisconsin1-0▲2AP 19
    Beat Illinois State 38-0 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Utah0-1▼10AP 13
    Lost 29-26 at Florida as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
18. 18Arkansas1-0▲1AP 16
    Beat No. 23 Cincinnati 31-24 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
19. 19Oregon0-1▼8AP NR
    Lost to No. 3 Georgia 49-3 at a neutral site as a 16-point underdog · Was No. 11
20. 20Kentucky1-0–AP 20
    Beat Miami (OH) 37-13 at home as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 20
21. 21Ole Miss1-0–AP 22
    Beat Troy 28-10 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
22. 22Florida1-0NewAP 12
    Beat No. 7 Utah 29-26 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was unranked
23. 23Wake Forest1-0▼1AP 23
    Beat VMI 44-10 at home as a 33.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
24. 24Florida State2-0NewAP NR
    Beat Duquesne 47-7 at home as a 42-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Tennessee1-0NewAP 24
    Beat Ball State 59-10 at home as a 35.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Cincinnati (was No. 23): Lost 31-24 at No. 19 Arkansas as a 6.5-point underdog.
• Houston (was No. 24): Won 37-35 at UTSA as a 3.5-point favorite.
• BYU (was No. 25): Won 50-21 at South Florida as a 11.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.