Projected AP Top 25 after week 4

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.1 places on average, with 12 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia4-0–AP 1
   Beat Kent State 39-22 at home as a 45-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama4-0–AP 2
   Beat Vanderbilt 55-3 at home as a 40.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State4-0–AP 3
   Beat Wisconsin 52-21 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Michigan4-0–AP 4
   Beat Maryland 34-27 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Clemson4-0–AP 5
   Won 51-45 at No. 21 Wake Forest as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6USC4-0▲1AP 6
   Won 17-14 at Oregon State as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Kentucky4-0▲1AP 7
   Beat Northern Illinois 31-23 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Oklahoma State3-0▲1AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 9
9. 9Tennessee4-0▲2AP 8
   Beat No. 20 Florida 38-33 at home as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10NC State4-0▲2AP 10
    Beat UConn 41-10 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Utah3-1▲2AP 12
    Won 34-13 at Arizona State as a 16.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
12. 12Penn State4-0▲2AP 11
    Beat Central Michigan 33-14 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was No. 14
13. 13Oregon3-1▲2AP 13
    Won 44-41 at Washington State as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Ole Miss4-0▲2AP 14
    Beat Tulsa 35-27 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 16
15. 15Oklahoma3-1▼9AP 18
    Lost 41-34 at home to Kansas State as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
16. 16Baylor3-1▲1AP 16
    Won 31-24 at Iowa State as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 17
17. 17Washington4-0▲1AP 15
    Beat Stanford 40-22 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 18
18. 18Kansas State3-1NewAP 25
    Won 41-34 at No. 6 Oklahoma as a 13.5-point underdog · Was unranked
19. 19BYU3-1–AP 19
    Beat Wyoming 38-24 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
20. 20Texas A&M3-1▲3AP 17
    Beat No. 10 Arkansas 23-21 at a neutral site as a 1.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
21. 21Arkansas3-1▼11AP 20
    Lost to No. 23 Texas A&M 23-21 at a neutral site as a 1.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
22. 22Florida State4-0NewAP 23
    Beat Boston College 44-14 at home as a 18.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23TCU3-0NewAP NR
    Won 42-34 at SMU as a 2.5-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24UCLA4-0NewAP NR
    Won 45-17 at Colorado as a 22-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Minnesota4-0NewAP 21
    Won 34-7 at Michigan State as a 3-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Florida (was No. 20): Lost 38-33 at No. 11 Tennessee as a 11-point underdog.
• Wake Forest (was No. 21): Lost 51-45 at home to No. 5 Clemson as a 7.5-point underdog.
• Texas (was No. 22): Lost 37-34 at Texas Tech as a 7-point favorite.
• Pittsburgh (was No. 24): Beat Rhode Island 45-24 at home as a 32.5-point favorite.
• Miami (was No. 25): Lost 45-31 at home to Middle Tennessee as a 25.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.