Projected AP Top 25 after week 12

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.2 places on average, with 8 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia11-0–AP 1
   Won 16-6 at Kentucky as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State11-0–AP 2
   Won 43-30 at Maryland as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Michigan11-0–AP 3
   Beat Illinois 19-17 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4TCU11-0–AP 4
   Won 29-28 at Baylor as a 2-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5LSU9-2▲1AP 6
   Beat UAB 41-10 at home as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6USC10-1▲1AP 5
   Won 48-45 at No. 16 UCLA as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Alabama9-2▲1AP 8
   Beat Austin Peay 34-0 at home as a 45-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Clemson10-1▲1AP 7
   Beat Miami 40-10 at home as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Oregon9-2▲3AP 10
   Beat No. 10 Utah 20-17 at home as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10Penn State9-2▲1AP 11
    Won 55-10 at Rutgers as a 18.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Washington9-2▲4AP 12
    Beat Colorado 54-7 at home as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
12. 12Utah8-3▼2AP 14
    Lost 20-17 at No. 12 Oregon as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 10
13. 13Notre Dame8-3▲5AP 13
    Beat Boston College 44-0 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 18
14. 14Kansas State8-3▲5AP 15
    Won 48-31 at West Virginia as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 19
15. 15Tennessee9-2▼10AP 9
    Lost 63-38 at South Carolina as a 22.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
16. 16Florida State8-3▲4AP 16
    Beat Louisiana 49-17 at home as a 25-point favorite · Was No. 20
17. 17Tulane9-2▲4AP 19
    Beat SMU 59-24 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
18. 18UCLA8-3▼2AP 17
    Lost 48-45 at home to No. 7 USC as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
19. 19Cincinnati9-2▲3AP 21
    Won 23-3 at Temple as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20North Carolina9-2▼7AP 18
    Lost 21-17 at home to Georgia Tech as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 13
21. 21Coastal Carolina9-1▲2AP 23
    Off this week · Was No. 23
22. 22Oregon State8-3▲3AP 22
    Won 31-7 at Arizona State as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
23. 23South Carolina7-4NewAP NR
    Beat No. 5 Tennessee 63-38 at home as a 22.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Ole Miss8-3▼10AP 20
    Lost 42-27 at Arkansas as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 14
25. 25UCF8-3▼8AP 25
    Lost 17-14 at home to Navy as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 17

Dropping out

• Oklahoma State (was No. 24): Lost 28-13 at Oklahoma as a 7-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.