Projected AP Top 25 after week 5

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.7 places on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia5-0–AP 2
   Won 26-22 at Missouri as a 30.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Alabama5-0–AP 1
   Won 49-26 at No. 20 Arkansas as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State5-0–AP 3
   Beat Rutgers 49-10 at home as a 39-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Clemson5-0▲1AP 5
   Beat No. 10 NC State 30-20 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Michigan5-0▼1AP 4
   Won 27-14 at Iowa as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
6. 6USC5-0–AP 6
   Beat Arizona State 42-25 at home as a 24.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Oklahoma State4-0▲2AP 7
   Won 36-25 at No. 16 Baylor as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
8. 8Tennessee4-0–AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 8
9. 9Penn State5-0▲2AP 10
   Beat Northwestern 17-7 at home as a 25.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Ole Miss5-0▲4AP 9
    Beat No. 7 Kentucky 22-19 at home as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
11. 11Utah4-1▲1AP 11
    Beat Oregon State 42-16 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
12. 12Oregon4-1▲1AP 12
    Beat Stanford 45-27 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
13. 13Kentucky4-1▼6AP 13
    Lost 22-19 at No. 14 Ole Miss as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 7
14. 14NC State4-1▼4AP 14
    Lost 30-20 at No. 5 Clemson as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 10
15. 15BYU4-1▲4AP 16
    Beat Utah State 38-26 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 19
16. 16Wake Forest4-1▲6AP 15
    Won 31-21 at No. 23 Florida State as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 22
17. 17Baylor3-2▼1AP NR
    Lost 36-25 at home to No. 9 Oklahoma State as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
18. 18TCU4-0NewAP 17
    Beat No. 18 Oklahoma 55-24 at home as a 5-point underdog · Was unranked
19. 19Kansas State4-1▲6AP 20
    Beat Texas Tech 37-28 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
20. 20UCLA5-0NewAP 18
    Beat No. 15 Washington 40-32 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was unranked
21. 21Washington4-1▼6AP 21
    Lost 40-32 at UCLA as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
22. 22Arkansas3-2▼2AP NR
    Lost 49-26 at home to No. 2 Alabama as a 17-point underdog · Was No. 20
23. 23Mississippi State4-1NewAP 23
    Beat No. 17 Texas A&M 42-24 at home as a 4-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24James Madison4-0NewAP NR
    Beat Texas State 40-13 at home as a 21.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Syracuse5-0NewAP 22
    Beat Wagner 59-0 at home as a 54-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Texas A&M (was No. 17): Lost 42-24 at Mississippi State as a 4-point underdog.
• Oklahoma (was No. 18): Lost 55-24 at TCU as a 5-point favorite.
• Minnesota (was No. 21): Lost 20-10 at home to Purdue as a 9.5-point favorite.
• Florida State (was No. 23): Lost 31-21 at home to No. 22 Wake Forest as a 6-point favorite.
• Pittsburgh (was No. 24): Lost 26-21 at home to Georgia Tech as a 21.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.