Projected AP Top 25 after week 10

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 25 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.2 places on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia9-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 2 Tennessee 27-13 at home as a 10-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State9-0▲1AP 2
   Won 21-7 at Northwestern as a 37.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
3. 3Michigan9-0▲1AP 3
   Won 52-17 at Rutgers as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
4. 4TCU9-0▲3AP 4
   Beat Texas Tech 34-24 at home as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 7
5. 5Tennessee8-1▼3AP 5
   Lost 27-13 at No. 1 Georgia as a 10-point underdog · Was No. 2
6. 6Oregon8-1▲2AP 6
   Won 49-10 at Colorado as a 31-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7USC8-1▲2AP 8
   Beat California 41-35 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8UCLA8-1▲2AP 9
   Won 50-36 at Arizona State as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Utah7-2▲3AP 13
   Beat Arizona 45-20 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10Ole Miss8-1▲1AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 11
11. 11LSU7-2▲4AP 7
    Beat No. 6 Alabama 32-31 at home as a 13.5-point underdog · Was No. 15
12. 12Alabama7-2▼6AP 10
    Lost 32-31 at No. 15 LSU as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
13. 13Penn State7-2▲3AP 14
    Won 45-14 at Indiana as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14North Carolina8-1▲3AP 15
    Won 31-28 at Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15Clemson8-1▼10AP 12
    Lost 35-14 at Notre Dame as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
16. 16Tulane8-1▲3AP 16
    Won 27-13 at Tulsa as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 19
17. 17NC State7-2▲4AP 17
    Beat No. 20 Wake Forest 30-21 at home as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 21
18. 18Notre Dame6-3NewAP 20
    Beat No. 5 Clemson 35-14 at home as a 3.5-point underdog · Was unranked
19. 19Liberty8-1▲4AP 19
    Won 21-19 at Arkansas as a 14.5-point underdog · Was No. 23
20. 20Kansas State6-3▼7AP 23
    Lost 34-27 at home to Texas as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 13
21. 21Texas6-3NewAP 18
    Won 34-27 at No. 13 Kansas State as a 3-point favorite · Was unranked
22. 22UCF7-2▲3AP 22
    Won 35-28 at Memphis as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 25
23. 23Illinois7-2▼9AP 21
    Lost 23-15 at home to Michigan State as a 16-point favorite · Was No. 14
24. 24Florida State6-3NewAP 25
    Won 45-3 at Miami as a 6.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Washington7-2NewAP 24
    Beat No. 24 Oregon State 24-21 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Oklahoma State (was No. 18): Lost 37-16 at Kansas as a 3-point underdog.
• Wake Forest (was No. 20): Lost 30-21 at No. 21 NC State as a 3-point favorite.
• Syracuse (was No. 22): Lost 19-9 at Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point underdog.
• Oregon State (was No. 24): Lost 24-21 at Washington as a 4.5-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.