Projected AP Top 25 after week 8

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia7-0–AP 1
   Off this week · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State7-0–AP 2
   Beat Iowa 54-10 at home as a 29.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Tennessee7-0–AP 3
   Beat UT Martin 65-24 at home as a 38.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Clemson8-0▲1AP 5
   Beat No. 14 Syracuse 27-21 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Michigan7-0▼1AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 4
6. 6Alabama7-1–AP 6
   Beat No. 24 Mississippi State 30-6 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7TCU7-0▲1AP 7
   Beat No. 17 Kansas State 38-28 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Oregon6-1▲2AP 8
   Beat No. 9 UCLA 45-30 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Oklahoma State6-1▲2AP 9
   Beat No. 20 Texas 41-34 at home as a 6.5-point underdog · Was No. 11
10. 10Wake Forest6-1▲3AP 11
    Beat Boston College 43-15 at home as a 20-point favorite · Was No. 13
11. 11USC6-1▲1AP 10
    Off this week · Was No. 12
12. 12Penn State6-1▲4AP 13
    Beat Minnesota 45-17 at home as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
13. 13Utah5-2▲2AP 14
    Off this week · Was No. 15
14. 14UCLA6-1▼5AP 12
    Lost 45-30 at No. 10 Oregon as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 9
15. 15Illinois6-1▲3AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 18
16. 16Syracuse6-1▼2AP 16
    Lost 27-21 at No. 5 Clemson as a 14-point underdog · Was No. 14
17. 17Kentucky5-2▲2AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 19
18. 18Ole Miss7-1▼11AP 15
    Lost 45-20 at LSU in a pick'em · Was No. 7
19. 19Cincinnati6-1▲2AP 20
    Won 29-27 at SMU as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
20. 20North Carolina6-1▲2AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 22
21. 21LSU6-2NewAP 18
    Beat No. 7 Ole Miss 45-20 at home in a pick'em · Was unranked
22. 22Kansas State5-2▼5AP 22
    Lost 38-28 at No. 8 TCU as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 17
23. 23NC State5-2–AP 24
    Off this week · Was No. 23
24. 24Tulane7-1▲1AP 23
    Beat Memphis 38-28 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 25
25. 25Texas5-3▼5AP NR
    Lost 41-34 at No. 11 Oklahoma State as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 20

Dropping out

• Mississippi State (was No. 24): Lost 30-6 at No. 6 Alabama as a 21-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.