Projected AP Top 25 after week 14

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.3 places on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia13-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 11 LSU 50-30 at a neutral site · Was No. 1
2. 2Michigan13-0–AP 2
   Beat Purdue 43-22 at a neutral site · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State11-1▲2AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 5
4. 4Alabama10-2▲2AP 5
   Off this week · Was No. 6
5. 5Tennessee10-2▲2AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 7
6. 6Penn State10-2▲2AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 8
7. 7Utah10-3▲5AP 7
   Beat No. 4 USC 47-24 at a neutral site · Was No. 12
8. 8Clemson11-2▲2AP 10
   Beat No. 24 North Carolina 39-10 at a neutral site · Was No. 10
9. 9Washington10-2–AP 12
   Off this week · Was No. 9
10. 10Kansas State10-3▲3AP 11
    Beat No. 3 TCU 31-28 at a neutral site · Was No. 13
11. 11TCU12-1▼8AP 3
    Lost to No. 13 Kansas State 31-28 at a neutral site · Was No. 3
12. 12USC11-2▼8AP 8
    Lost to No. 12 Utah 47-24 at a neutral site · Was No. 4
13. 13Florida State9-3▲1AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 14
14. 14Oregon9-3▲1AP 15
    Off this week · Was No. 15
15. 15LSU9-4▼4AP 16
    Lost to No. 1 Georgia 50-30 at a neutral site · Was No. 11
16. 16Oregon State9-3–AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 16
17. 17Tulane11-2▲1AP 14
    Beat No. 22 UCF 45-28 at a neutral site · Was No. 18
18. 18UCLA9-3▼1AP 18
    Off this week · Was No. 17
19. 19Notre Dame8-4–AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 19
20. 20South Carolina8-4–AP 20
    Off this week · Was No. 20
21. 21Texas8-4–AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 21
22. 22UTSA11-2▲1AP 22
    Beat North Texas 48-27 at a neutral site · Was No. 23
23. 23Mississippi State8-4▲2AP 24
    Off this week · Was No. 25
24. 24Troy11-2NewAP 23
    Beat Coastal Carolina 45-26 at a neutral site · Was unranked
25. 25South Alabama10-2NewAP NR
    Off this week · Was unranked

Dropping out

• UCF (was No. 22): Lost to No. 18 Tulane 45-28 at a neutral site.
• North Carolina (was No. 24): Lost to No. 10 Clemson 39-10 at a neutral site.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.