Projected AP Top 25 after week 7

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Georgia7-0–AP 1
   Beat Vanderbilt 55-0 at home as a 37.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State6-0–AP 2
   Off this week · Was No. 2
3. 3Michigan7-0▲2AP 4
   Beat No. 10 Penn State 41-17 at home as a 7-point favorite · Was No. 5
4. 4Clemson7-0–AP 5
   Won 34-28 at Florida State as a 4.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Tennessee6-0▲1AP 3
   Beat No. 3 Alabama 52-49 at home as a 9-point underdog · Was No. 6
6. 6Alabama6-1▼3AP 6
   Lost 52-49 at No. 6 Tennessee as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 3
7. 7Ole Miss7-0▲2AP 7
   Beat Auburn 48-34 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
8. 8TCU6-0▲5AP 8
   Beat No. 8 Oklahoma State 43-40 at home as a 5-point favorite · Was No. 13
9. 9UCLA6-0▲2AP 9
   Off this week · Was No. 11
10. 10Oregon5-1▲2AP 10
    Off this week · Was No. 12
11. 11Wake Forest5-1▲3AP 13
    Off this week · Was No. 14
12. 12Oklahoma State5-1▼4AP 11
    Lost 43-40 at No. 13 TCU as a 5-point underdog · Was No. 8
13. 13Syracuse6-0▲5AP 14
    Beat No. 15 NC State 24-9 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 18
14. 14USC6-1▼7AP 12
    Lost 43-42 at No. 20 Utah as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 7
15. 15Utah5-2▲5AP 15
    Beat No. 7 USC 43-42 at home as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
16. 16Kansas State5-1▲1AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 17
17. 17Penn State5-1▼7AP 16
    Lost 41-17 at No. 5 Michigan as a 7-point underdog · Was No. 10
18. 18Kentucky5-2▲5AP 19
    Beat No. 16 Mississippi State 27-17 at home as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 23
19. 19Cincinnati5-1▲2AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 21
20. 20Texas5-2▲2AP 20
    Beat Iowa State 24-21 at home as a 15.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Illinois6-1▲3AP 18
    Beat Minnesota 26-14 at home as a 4.5-point underdog · Was No. 24
22. 22NC State5-2▼7AP 23
    Lost 24-9 at No. 18 Syracuse as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 15
23. 23Tulane6-1NewAP 25
    Won 45-31 at South Florida as a 12-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24UCF5-1NewAP NR
    Beat Temple 70-13 at home as a 23.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Mississippi State5-2▼9AP 24
    Lost 27-17 at No. 23 Kentucky as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 16

Dropping out

• Kansas (was No. 19): Lost 52-42 at Oklahoma as a 10.5-point underdog.
• James Madison (was No. 25): Lost 45-38 at Georgia Southern as a 13-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.