Projected AP Top 25 after week 2

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 22 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 2 places on average, with 7 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama2-0–AP 2
   Won 20-19 at Texas as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Georgia2-0–AP 1
   Beat Samford 33-0 at home as a 53-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State2-0–AP 3
   Beat Arkansas State 45-12 at home as a 44.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Michigan2-0–AP 4
   Beat Hawai'i 56-10 at home as a 52.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Clemson2-0–AP 5
   Beat Furman 35-12 at home as a 45.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oklahoma2-0▲1AP 6
   Beat Kent State 33-3 at home as a 33-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7USC2-0▲3AP 7
   Won 41-28 at Stanford as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
8. 8Oklahoma State2-0▲3AP 8
   Beat Arizona State 34-17 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
9. 9Utah1-1▲4AP 14
   Beat Southern Utah 73-7 at home as a 45.5-point favorite · Was No. 13
10. 10Michigan State2-0▲4AP 11
    Beat Akron 52-0 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
11. 11Miami2-0▲4AP 13
    Beat Southern Miss 30-7 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
12. 12Arkansas2-0▲4AP 10
    Beat South Carolina 44-30 at home as a 8.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
13. 13Kentucky2-0▲7AP 9
    Won 26-16 at No. 12 Florida as a 6-point underdog · Was No. 20
14. 14Texas A&M1-1▼8AP 24
    Lost 17-14 at home to App State as a 18-point favorite · Was No. 6
15. 15BYU2-0▲6AP 12
    Beat No. 9 Baylor 26-20 at home as a 2.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
16. 16NC State2-0▲2AP 16
    Beat Charleston Southern 55-3 at home as a 45.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Notre Dame0-2▼9AP NR
    Lost 26-21 at home to Marshall as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 8
18. 18Baylor1-1▼9AP 17
    Lost 26-20 at No. 21 BYU as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
19. 19Ole Miss2-0▲3AP 20
    Beat Central Arkansas 59-3 at home as a 36.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20Tennessee2-0▲4AP 15
    Won 34-27 at No. 17 Pittsburgh as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 24
21. 21Florida1-1▼9AP 18
    Lost 26-16 at home to No. 20 Kentucky as a 6-point favorite · Was No. 12
22. 22Wake Forest2-0▲1AP 19
    Won 45-25 at Vanderbilt as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 23
23. 23Marshall2-0NewAP NR
    Won 26-21 at No. 8 Notre Dame as a 20.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Penn State2-0NewAP 22
    Beat Ohio 46-10 at home as a 28-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25TCU2-0NewAP NR
    Beat Tarleton State 59-17 at home as a 40-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Pittsburgh (was No. 17): Lost 34-27 at home to No. 24 Tennessee as a 6-point underdog.
• Wisconsin (was No. 19): Lost 17-14 at home to Washington State as a 17.5-point favorite.
• Houston (was No. 25): Lost 33-30 at Texas Tech as a 4-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.