Projected AP Top 25 after week 9

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.3 places on average, with 6 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama8-0–AP 2
   Beat Arkansas 48-7 at home as a 32-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2LSU8-0–AP 1
   Beat No. 9 Auburn 23-20 at home as a 11.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State8-0–AP 3
   Beat No. 13 Wisconsin 38-7 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Clemson8-0–AP 4
   Beat Boston College 59-7 at home as a 35-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Penn State8-0▲1AP 5
   Won 28-7 at Michigan State as a 5.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Florida7-1▲1AP 6
   Off this week · Was No. 7
7. 7Georgia6-1▲3AP 8
   Off this week · Was No. 10
8. 8Oregon7-1▲3AP 7
   Beat Washington State 37-35 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
9. 9Utah7-1▲3AP 9
   Beat California 35-0 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 12
10. 10Auburn6-2▼1AP 11
    Lost 23-20 at No. 2 LSU as a 11.5-point underdog · Was No. 9
11. 11Michigan6-2▲8AP 14
    Beat No. 8 Notre Dame 45-14 at home as a 1-point favorite · Was No. 19
12. 12Baylor7-0▲2AP 12
    Off this week · Was No. 14
13. 13SMU8-0▲3AP 15
    Won 34-31 at Houston as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
14. 14Minnesota8-0▲3AP 13
    Beat Maryland 52-10 at home as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15Oklahoma7-1▼10AP 10
    Lost 48-41 at Kansas State as a 23.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
16. 16Cincinnati6-1▲2AP 17
    Off this week · Was No. 18
17. 17Iowa6-2▲3AP 19
    Won 20-0 at Northwestern as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 20
18. 18App State7-0▲3AP 20
    Won 30-3 at South Alabama as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 21
19. 19Notre Dame5-2▼11AP 16
    Lost 45-14 at No. 19 Michigan as a 1-point underdog · Was No. 8
20. 20Wisconsin6-2▼7AP 18
    Lost 38-7 at No. 3 Ohio State as a 14.5-point underdog · Was No. 13
21. 21Kansas State5-2NewAP 22
    Beat No. 5 Oklahoma 48-41 at home as a 23.5-point underdog · Was unranked
22. 22Boise State6-1–AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 22
23. 23Memphis7-1NewAP 24
    Won 42-41 at Tulsa as a 10-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Navy6-1NewAP NR
    Beat Tulane 41-38 at home as a 4.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25UCF6-2NewAP NR
    Won 63-21 at Temple as a 11.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Texas (was No. 15): Lost 37-27 at TCU as a 1-point underdog.
• Iowa State (was No. 23): Lost 34-27 at home to Oklahoma State as a 11-point favorite.
• Arizona State (was No. 24): Lost 42-32 at UCLA as a 3-point favorite.
• Wake Forest (was No. 25): Off this week.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.