Projected AP Top 25 after week 12

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 23 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.3 places on average, with 10 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1LSU10-0–AP 1
   Won 58-37 at Ole Miss as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State10-0–AP 2
   Won 56-21 at Rutgers as a 52-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson11-0–AP 3
   Beat Wake Forest 52-3 at home as a 34.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Alabama9-1–AP 5
   Won 38-7 at Mississippi State as a 19-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Georgia9-1–AP 4
   Won 21-14 at No. 13 Auburn as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 5
6. 6Oregon9-1–AP 6
   Beat Arizona 34-6 at home as a 27-point favorite · Was No. 6
7. 7Utah9-1▲1AP 7
   Beat UCLA 49-3 at home as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Oklahoma9-1▲2AP 8
   Won 34-31 at No. 12 Baylor as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
9. 9Penn State9-1–AP 9
   Beat No. 24 Indiana 34-27 at home as a 15-point favorite · Was No. 9
10. 10Florida9-2▲1AP 10
    Won 23-6 at Missouri as a 6.5-point favorite · Was No. 11
11. 11Michigan8-2▲3AP 12
    Beat Michigan State 44-10 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12Notre Dame8-2▲4AP 15
    Beat No. 21 Navy 52-20 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was No. 16
13. 13Wisconsin8-2▲2AP 14
    Won 37-21 at Nebraska as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Cincinnati9-1▲3AP 17
    Won 20-17 at South Florida as a 13-point favorite · Was No. 17
15. 15Minnesota9-1▼8AP 11
    Lost 23-19 at No. 23 Iowa as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 7
16. 16Memphis9-1▲2AP 18
    Won 45-27 at Houston as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 18
17. 17Boise State9-1▲2AP 20
    Beat New Mexico 42-9 at home as a 26-point favorite · Was No. 19
18. 18Auburn7-3▼5AP 16
    Lost 21-14 at home to No. 5 Georgia as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 13
19. 19Iowa7-3▲4AP 19
    Beat No. 7 Minnesota 23-19 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 23
20. 20Baylor9-1▼8AP 13
    Lost 34-31 at home to No. 10 Oklahoma as a 10.5-point underdog · Was No. 12
21. 21SMU9-1▼1AP 21
    Off this week · Was No. 20
22. 22App State9-1NewAP 23
    Won 56-27 at Georgia State as a 15-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23Oklahoma State7-3▲2AP 22
    Beat Kansas 31-13 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
24. 24Air Force8-2NewAP NR
    Won 38-21 at Colorado State as a 10.5-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Louisiana8-2NewAP NR
    Won 37-27 at South Alabama as a 27.5-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Navy (was No. 21): Lost 52-20 at No. 16 Notre Dame as a 7.5-point underdog.
• Texas (was No. 22): Lost 23-21 at Iowa State as a 7-point underdog.
• Indiana (was No. 24): Lost 34-27 at No. 9 Penn State as a 15-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.