Projected AP Top 25 after week 7

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 1.2 places on average, with 9 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1Alabama6-0–AP 1
   Won 47-28 at No. 24 Texas A&M as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Clemson6-0–AP 3
   Beat Florida State 45-14 at home as a 26.5-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Ohio State6-0–AP 4
   Off this week · Was No. 3
4. 4LSU6-0▲1AP 2
   Beat No. 7 Florida 42-28 at home as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 5
5. 5Oklahoma6-0▲1AP 5
   Beat No. 11 Texas 34-27 at a neutral site as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Wisconsin6-0▲2AP 6
   Beat Michigan State 38-0 at home as a 8-point favorite · Was No. 8
7. 7Penn State6-0▲3AP 7
   Won 17-12 at No. 17 Iowa as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 10
8. 8Notre Dame5-1▲1AP 8
   Beat USC 30-27 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 9
9. 9Oregon5-1▲4AP 12
   Beat Colorado 45-3 at home as a 23-point favorite · Was No. 13
10. 10Auburn5-1▲2AP 11
    Off this week · Was No. 12
11. 11Boise State6-0▲3AP 14
    Beat Hawai'i 59-37 at home as a 12.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
12. 12Florida6-1▼5AP 9
    Lost 42-28 at No. 5 LSU as a 14-point underdog · Was No. 7
13. 13Utah5-1▲2AP 13
    Won 52-7 at Oregon State as a 14.5-point favorite · Was No. 15
14. 14Georgia5-1▼10AP 10
    Lost 20-17 at home to South Carolina as a 21-point favorite · Was No. 4
15. 15Michigan5-1▲1AP 16
    Won 42-25 at Illinois as a 24-point favorite · Was No. 16
16. 16Texas4-2▼5AP 15
    Lost to No. 6 Oklahoma 34-27 at a neutral site as a 11-point underdog · Was No. 11
17. 17Arizona State5-1▲1AP 17
    Beat Washington State 38-34 at home as a 2.5-point underdog · Was No. 18
18. 18SMU6-0▲3AP 19
    Off this week · Was No. 21
19. 19Baylor6-0▲3AP 18
    Beat Texas Tech 33-30 at home as a 10.5-point favorite · Was No. 22
20. 20Iowa4-2▼3AP 23
    Lost 17-12 at home to No. 10 Penn State as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 17
21. 21Cincinnati5-1▲4AP 21
    Won 38-23 at Houston as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 25
22. 22Minnesota6-0NewAP 20
    Beat Nebraska 34-7 at home as a 7.5-point favorite · Was unranked
23. 23App State5-0NewAP 24
    Won 17-7 at Louisiana as a 2.5-point underdog · Was unranked
24. 24Navy4-1NewAP NR
    Won 45-17 at Tulsa as a 1-point underdog · Was unranked
25. 25Washington5-2NewAP 25
    Won 51-27 at Arizona as a 6-point favorite · Was unranked

Dropping out

• Wake Forest (was No. 19): Lost 62-59 at home to Louisville as a 7-point favorite.
• Virginia (was No. 20): Lost 17-9 at Miami as a 2.5-point underdog.
• Memphis (was No. 23): Lost 30-28 at Temple as a 4-point favorite.
• Texas A&M (was No. 24): Lost 47-28 at home to No. 1 Alabama as a 17-point underdog.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.