Projected AP Top 25 after week 14

Where we expect AP voters to put every team, from last week’s poll and how each team just played. The real poll is out: we named 24 of its 25 teams and missed their spots by 0.9 places on average, with 13 exactly right.

This week is worked out from the results with the same model as our Saturday-night projections, so each team gets a one-line summary instead of a write-up.

1. 1LSU12-0–AP 1
   Beat Texas A&M 50-7 at home as a 17.5-point favorite · Was No. 1
2. 2Ohio State12-0–AP 2
   Won 56-27 at No. 10 Michigan as a 9-point favorite · Was No. 2
3. 3Clemson12-0–AP 3
   Won 38-3 at South Carolina as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 3
4. 4Georgia11-1–AP 4
   Won 52-7 at Georgia Tech as a 28.5-point favorite · Was No. 4
5. 5Utah11-1▲1AP 5
   Beat Colorado 45-15 at home as a 27.5-point favorite · Was No. 6
6. 6Oklahoma11-1▲1AP 6
   Won 34-16 at No. 21 Oklahoma State as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 7
7. 7Florida10-2▲1AP 7
   Beat Florida State 40-17 at home as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 8
8. 8Wisconsin10-2▲5AP 10
   Won 38-17 at No. 9 Minnesota as a 3-point favorite · Was No. 13
9. 9Baylor11-1▲2AP 8
   Won 61-6 at Kansas as a 14-point favorite · Was No. 11
10. 10Penn State10-2▲2AP 12
    Beat Rutgers 27-6 at home as a 39-point favorite · Was No. 12
11. 11Auburn9-3▲5AP 11
    Beat No. 5 Alabama 48-45 at home as a 3.5-point underdog · Was No. 16
12. 12Alabama10-2▼7AP 9
    Lost 48-45 at No. 16 Auburn as a 3.5-point favorite · Was No. 5
13. 13Oregon10-2▲1AP 13
    Beat Oregon State 24-10 at home as a 20.5-point favorite · Was No. 14
14. 14Notre Dame10-2▲1AP 14
    Won 45-24 at Stanford as a 17-point favorite · Was No. 15
15. 15Memphis11-1▲2AP 16
    Beat No. 18 Cincinnati 34-24 at home as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 17
16. 16Michigan9-3▼6AP 17
    Lost 56-27 at home to No. 2 Ohio State as a 9-point underdog · Was No. 10
17. 17Minnesota10-2▼8AP 15
    Lost 38-17 at home to No. 13 Wisconsin as a 3-point underdog · Was No. 9
18. 18Iowa9-3▲1AP 18
    Won 27-24 at Nebraska as a 4-point favorite · Was No. 19
19. 19Boise State11-1▲1AP 19
    Won 31-24 at Colorado State as a 13.5-point favorite · Was No. 20
20. 20App State11-1▲2AP 20
    Won 48-13 at Troy as a 11-point favorite · Was No. 22
21. 21Navy9-2▲3AP 23
    Won 56-41 at Houston as a 9.5-point favorite · Was No. 24
22. 22USC8-4▲3AP 24
    Off this week · Was No. 25
23. 23SMU10-2NewAP NR
    Beat Tulane 37-20 at home as a 3-point favorite · Was unranked
24. 24Air Force10-2NewAP 25
    Beat Wyoming 20-6 at home as a 13-point favorite · Was unranked
25. 25Cincinnati10-2▼7AP 21
    Lost 34-24 at No. 17 Memphis as a 13.5-point underdog · Was No. 18

Dropping out

• Oklahoma State (was No. 21): Lost 34-16 at home to No. 7 Oklahoma as a 14-point underdog.
• Virginia Tech (was No. 23): Lost 39-30 at Virginia as a 1.5-point favorite.

The projection uses the same vote model as our season simulator, fitted to every AP poll from 2014 to 2025: wins over ranked teams and lopsided wins lift a team, losses cost more the weaker the winner and the bigger the margin. Write-ups are generated from the game data and checked against it before they publish.